IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v12y2021i1d10.1038_s41467-021-24134-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Alizée Chemison

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnnment (LSCE), CEA)

  • Gilles Ramstein

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnnment (LSCE), CEA)

  • Adrian M. Tompkins

    (Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP))

  • Dimitri Defrance

    (The Climate Data factory)

  • Guigone Camus

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnnment (LSCE), CEA)

  • Margaux Charra

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnnment (LSCE), CEA)

  • Cyril Caminade

    (University of Liverpool
    University of Liverpool)

Abstract

Studies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments.

Suggested Citation

  • Alizée Chemison & Gilles Ramstein & Adrian M. Tompkins & Dimitri Defrance & Guigone Camus & Margaux Charra & Cyril Caminade, 2021. "Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-24134-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24134-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-24134-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.