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Role of meteorological factors in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Yiqun Ma

    (Yale School of Public Health
    Yale School of Public Health)

  • Sen Pei

    (Columbia University)

  • Jeffrey Shaman

    (Columbia University)

  • Robert Dubrow

    (Yale School of Public Health
    Yale School of Public Health)

  • Kai Chen

    (Yale School of Public Health
    Yale School of Public Health)

Abstract

Improved understanding of the effects of meteorological conditions on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the causative agent for COVID-19 disease, is needed. Here, we estimate the relationship between air temperature, specific humidity, and ultraviolet radiation and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in 2669 U.S. counties with abundant reported cases from March 15 to December 31, 2020. Specifically, we quantify the associations of daily mean temperature, specific humidity, and ultraviolet radiation with daily estimates of the SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number (Rt) and calculate the fraction of Rt attributable to these meteorological conditions. Lower air temperature (within the 20–40 °C range), lower specific humidity, and lower ultraviolet radiation were significantly associated with increased Rt. The fraction of Rt attributable to temperature, specific humidity, and ultraviolet radiation were 3.73% (95% empirical confidence interval [eCI]: 3.66–3.76%), 9.35% (95% eCI: 9.27–9.39%), and 4.44% (95% eCI: 4.38–4.47%), respectively. In total, 17.5% of Rt was attributable to meteorological factors. The fractions attributable to meteorological factors generally were higher in northern counties than in southern counties. Our findings indicate that cold and dry weather and low levels of ultraviolet radiation are moderately associated with increased SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility, with humidity playing the largest role.

Suggested Citation

  • Yiqun Ma & Sen Pei & Jeffrey Shaman & Robert Dubrow & Kai Chen, 2021. "Role of meteorological factors in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-23866-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23866-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Vahdani, Behnam & Mohammadi, Mehrdad & Thevenin, Simon & Gendreau, Michel & Dolgui, Alexandre & Meyer, Patrick, 2023. "Fair-split distribution of multi-dose vaccines with prioritized age groups and dynamic demand: The case study of COVID-19," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(3), pages 1249-1272.
    2. Padilla, Samantha & Schulz, Lee & Vaiknoras, Kate A. & MacLachlan, Matthew J., 2022. "The Resiliency of Pork Processing Plants during the COVID-19 Pandemic," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322448, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Till Baldenius & Nicolas Koch & Hannah Klauber & Nadja Klein, 2023. "Heat increases experienced racial segregation in the United States," Papers 2306.13772, arXiv.org.
    4. Vahdani, Behnam & Mohammadi, Mehrdad & Thevenin, Simon & Meyer, Patrick & Dolgui, Alexandre, 2023. "Production-sharing of critical resources with dynamic demand under pandemic situation: The COVID-19 pandemic," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

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