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Optimizing vaccine allocation for COVID-19 vaccines shows the potential role of single-dose vaccination

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Matrajt

    (Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center)

  • Julia Eaton

    (School of Interdisciplinary Arts and Sciences, University of Washington)

  • Tiffany Leung

    (Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center)

  • Dobromir Dimitrov

    (Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
    Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Washington)

  • Joshua T. Schiffer

    (Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
    Department of Medicine, University of Washington
    Clinical Research Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center)

  • David A. Swan

    (Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center)

  • Holly Janes

    (Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center)

Abstract

Most COVID-19 vaccines require two doses, however with limited vaccine supply, policymakers are considering single-dose vaccination as an alternative strategy. Using a mathematical model combined with optimization algorithms, we determined optimal allocation strategies with one and two doses of vaccine under various degrees of viral transmission. Under low transmission, we show that the optimal allocation of vaccine vitally depends on the single-dose efficacy. With high single-dose efficacy, single-dose vaccination is optimal, preventing up to 22% more deaths than a strategy prioritizing two-dose vaccination for older adults. With low or moderate single-dose efficacy, mixed vaccination campaigns with complete coverage of older adults are optimal. However, with modest or high transmission, vaccinating older adults first with two doses is best, preventing up to 41% more deaths than a single-dose vaccination given across all adult populations. Our work suggests that it is imperative to determine the efficacy and durability of single-dose vaccines, as mixed or single-dose vaccination campaigns may have the potential to contain the pandemic much more quickly.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Matrajt & Julia Eaton & Tiffany Leung & Dobromir Dimitrov & Joshua T. Schiffer & David A. Swan & Holly Janes, 2021. "Optimizing vaccine allocation for COVID-19 vaccines shows the potential role of single-dose vaccination," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-23761-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23761-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Matt D. T. Hitchings & Otavio T. Ranzani & Murilo Dorion & Tatiana Lang D’Agostini & Regiane Cardoso de Paula & Olivia Ferreira Pereira de Paula & Edlaine Faria de Moura Villela & Mario Sergio Scaramu, 2021. "Effectiveness of ChAdOx1 vaccine in older adults during SARS-CoV-2 Gamma variant circulation in São Paulo," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Emanuele Blasioli & Bahareh Mansouri & Srinivas Subramanya Tamvada & Elkafi Hassini, 2023. "Vaccine Allocation and Distribution: A Review with a Focus on Quantitative Methodologies and Application to Equity, Hesitancy, and COVID-19 Pandemic," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 1-32, June.
    3. Erdoğan, Güneş & Yücel, Eda & Kiavash, Parinaz & Salman, F. Sibel, 2024. "Fair and effective vaccine allocation during a pandemic," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Mohammadi, Mehrdad & Asgari, Erfan & Mamaghan, Maryam Karimi & Pirayesh, Amir & van Woensel, Tom, 2024. "Heterogeneous joint vaccine allocation and quarantine restriction planning under uncertainty: The COVID-19 pandemic," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

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