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Insights into household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from a population-based serological survey

Author

Listed:
  • Qifang Bi

    (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health)

  • Justin Lessler

    (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health)

  • Isabella Eckerle

    (Geneva University Hospitals
    University of Geneva)

  • Stephen A. Lauer

    (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health)

  • Laurent Kaiser

    (Geneva University Hospitals
    Division of Infectious Diseases, Geneva University Hospitals
    University of Geneva)

  • Nicolas Vuilleumier

    (University of Geneva
    Geneva University Hospitals)

  • Derek A. T. Cummings

    (University of Florida
    University of Florida)

  • Antoine Flahault

    (Geneva University Hospitals
    University of Geneva
    University of Geneva)

  • Dusan Petrovic

    (Geneva University Hospitals
    University of Lausanne
    Imperial College London)

  • Idris Guessous

    (University of Geneva
    Geneva University Hospitals)

  • Silvia Stringhini

    (University of Geneva
    Geneva University Hospitals
    University of Lausanne)

  • Andrew S. Azman

    (Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
    University of Geneva
    Geneva University Hospitals)

Abstract

Understanding the risk of infection from household- and community-exposures and the transmissibility of asymptomatic infections is critical to SARS-CoV-2 control. Limited previous evidence is based primarily on virologic testing, which disproportionately misses mild and asymptomatic infections. Serologic measures are more likely to capture all previously infected individuals. We apply household transmission models to data from a cross-sectional, household-based population serosurvey of 4,534 people ≥5 years from 2,267 households enrolled April-June 2020 in Geneva, Switzerland. We found that the risk of infection from exposure to a single infected household member aged ≥5 years (17.3%,13.7-21.7) was more than three-times that of extra-household exposures over the first pandemic wave (5.1%,4.5-5.8). Young children had a lower risk of infection from household members. Working-age adults had the highest extra-household infection risk. Seropositive asymptomatic household members had 69.4% lower odds (95%CrI,31.8-88.8%) of infecting another household member compared to those reporting symptoms, accounting for 14.5% (95%CrI, 7.2-22.7%) of all household infections.

Suggested Citation

  • Qifang Bi & Justin Lessler & Isabella Eckerle & Stephen A. Lauer & Laurent Kaiser & Nicolas Vuilleumier & Derek A. T. Cummings & Antoine Flahault & Dusan Petrovic & Idris Guessous & Silvia Stringhini , 2021. "Insights into household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from a population-based serological survey," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-23733-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23733-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Sk, Tahajuddin & Biswas, Santosh & Sardar, Tridip, 2022. "The impact of a power law-induced memory effect on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 165(P2).

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