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Impact of COVID-19 outbreaks and interventions on influenza in China and the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Luzhao Feng

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention
    Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Peking Union Medical College)

  • Ting Zhang

    (Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Peking Union Medical College)

  • Qing Wang

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Yiran Xie

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention/Chinese National Influenza Center)

  • Zhibin Peng

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Jiandong Zheng

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Ying Qin

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Muli Zhang

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Shengjie Lai

    (University of Southampton)

  • Dayan Wang

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention/Chinese National Influenza Center)

  • Zijian Feng

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Zhongjie Li

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • George F. Gao

    (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention/Chinese National Influenza Center
    Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

Abstract

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was detected in China during the 2019–2020 seasonal influenza epidemic. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and behavioral changes to mitigate COVID-19 could have affected transmission dynamics of influenza and other respiratory diseases. By comparing 2019–2020 seasonal influenza activity through March 29, 2020 with the 2011–2019 seasons, we found that COVID-19 outbreaks and related NPIs may have reduced influenza in Southern and Northern China and the United States by 79.2% (lower and upper bounds: 48.8%–87.2%), 79.4% (44.9%–87.4%) and 67.2% (11.5%–80.5%). Decreases in influenza virus infection were also associated with the timing of NPIs. Without COVID-19 NPIs, influenza activity in China and the United States would likely have remained high during the 2019–2020 season. Our findings provide evidence that NPIs can partially mitigate seasonal and, potentially, pandemic influenza.

Suggested Citation

  • Luzhao Feng & Ting Zhang & Qing Wang & Yiran Xie & Zhibin Peng & Jiandong Zheng & Ying Qin & Muli Zhang & Shengjie Lai & Dayan Wang & Zijian Feng & Zhongjie Li & George F. Gao, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 outbreaks and interventions on influenza in China and the United States," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-23440-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23440-1
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