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Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Anderson Fernandes Brito

    (Yale University)

  • Lais Ceschini Machado

    (Aggeu Magalhaẽs Institute, Fiocruz)

  • Rachel J. Oidtman

    (University of Notre Dame)

  • Márcio Junio Lima Siconelli

    (University of São Paulo)

  • Quan Minh Tran

    (University of Notre Dame)

  • Joseph R. Fauver

    (Yale University)

  • Rodrigo Dias de Oliveira Carvalho

    (Aggeu Magalhaẽs Institute, Fiocruz)

  • Filipe Zimmer Dezordi

    (Aggeu Magalhaẽs Institute, Fiocruz)

  • Mylena Ribeiro Pereira

    (Aggeu Magalhaes Institute, Fiocruz)

  • Luiza Antunes Castro-Jorge

    (University of São Paulo)

  • Elaine Cristina Manini Minto

    (Municipal Health Secretary from Ribeirão Preto)

  • Luzia Márcia Romanholi Passos

    (Municipal Health Secretary from Ribeirão Preto)

  • Chaney C. Kalinich

    (Yale University)

  • Mary E. Petrone

    (Yale University)

  • Emma Allen

    (Yale University)

  • Guido Camargo España

    (University of Notre Dame)

  • Angkana T. Huang

    (University of Florida)

  • Derek A. T. Cummings

    (University of Florida)

  • Guy Baele

    (Rega Institute, Laboratory of Evolutionary and Computational Virology)

  • Rafael Freitas Oliveira Franca

    (Aggeu Magalhaes Institute, Fiocruz)

  • Benedito Antônio Lopes Fonseca

    (University of São Paulo)

  • T. Alex Perkins

    (University of Notre Dame)

  • Gabriel Luz Wallau

    (Aggeu Magalhaẽs Institute, Fiocruz)

  • Nathan D. Grubaugh

    (Yale University
    Yale University)

Abstract

After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined to record lows in many countries in 2017–2018, but in 2019 dengue resurged in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. In this study we use epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to investigate dengue dynamics in recent years in Brazil. First, we estimate dengue virus force of infection (FOI) and model mosquito-borne transmission suitability since the early 2000s. Our estimates reveal that DENV transmission was low in 2017–2018, despite conditions being suitable for viral spread. Our study also shows a marked decline in dengue susceptibility between 2002 and 2019, which could explain the synchronous decline of dengue in the country, partially as a result of protective immunity from prior ZIKV and/or DENV infections. Furthermore, we performed phylogeographic analyses using 69 newly sequenced genomes of dengue virus serotype 1 and 2 from Brazil, and found that the outbreaks in 2018–2019 were caused by local DENV lineages that persisted for 5–10 years, circulating cryptically before and after the Zika epidemic. We hypothesize that DENV lineages may circulate at low transmission levels for many years, until local conditions are suitable for higher transmission, when they cause major outbreaks.

Suggested Citation

  • Anderson Fernandes Brito & Lais Ceschini Machado & Rachel J. Oidtman & Márcio Junio Lima Siconelli & Quan Minh Tran & Joseph R. Fauver & Rodrigo Dias de Oliveira Carvalho & Filipe Zimmer Dezordi & Myl, 2021. "Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-22921-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22921-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Marie-Catherine Gagnon-Dufresne & Mayana Azevedo Dantas & Kellyanne Abreu Silva & Jean Souza dos Anjos & Delano Pessoa Carneiro Barbosa & Rebeca Porto Rosa & William de Luca & Monica Zahreddine & Andr, 2023. "Social Media and the Influence of Fake News on Global Health Interventions: Implications for a Study on Dengue in Brazil," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(7), pages 1-10, March.
    2. Francesco Pinotti & Marta Giovanetti & Maricelia Maia Lima & Erenilde Marques Cerqueira & Luiz C. J. Alcantara & Sunetra Gupta & Mario Recker & José Lourenço, 2024. "Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Emma Taylor-Salmon & Verity Hill & Lauren M. Paul & Robert T. Koch & Mallery I. Breban & Chrispin Chaguza & Afeez Sodeinde & Joshua L. Warren & Sylvia Bunch & Natalia Cano & Marshall Cone & Sarah Eyso, 2024. "Travel surveillance uncovers dengue virus dynamics and introductions in the Caribbean," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.

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