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Distance to native climatic niche margins explains establishment success of alien mammals

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Broennimann

    (University of Lausanne
    University of Lausanne)

  • Blaise Petitpierre

    (University of Lausanne)

  • Mathieu Chevalier

    (University of Lausanne)

  • Manuela González-Suárez

    (University of Reading)

  • Jonathan M. Jeschke

    (Freie Universität Berlin
    Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB)
    Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB))

  • Jonathan Rolland

    (Laboratoire Evolution et Diversité Biologique, CNRS, Bâtiment 4R1
    University of Lausanne)

  • Sarah M. Gray

    (University of Fribourg)

  • Sven Bacher

    (University of Fribourg)

  • Antoine Guisan

    (University of Lausanne
    University of Lausanne)

Abstract

One key hypothesis explaining the fate of exotic species introductions posits that the establishment of a self-sustaining population in the invaded range can only succeed within conditions matching the native climatic niche. Yet, this hypothesis remains untested for individual release events. Using a dataset of 979 introductions of 173 mammal species worldwide, we show that climate-matching to the realized native climatic niche, measured by a new Niche Margin Index (NMI), is a stronger predictor of establishment success than most previously tested life-history attributes and historical factors. Contrary to traditional climatic suitability metrics derived from species distribution models, NMI is based on niche margins and provides a measure of how distant a site is inside or, importantly, outside the niche. Besides many applications in research in ecology and evolution, NMI as a measure of native climatic niche-matching in risk assessments could improve efforts to prevent invasions and avoid costly eradications.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Broennimann & Blaise Petitpierre & Mathieu Chevalier & Manuela González-Suárez & Jonathan M. Jeschke & Jonathan Rolland & Sarah M. Gray & Sven Bacher & Antoine Guisan, 2021. "Distance to native climatic niche margins explains establishment success of alien mammals," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-22693-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22693-0
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    Cited by:

    1. David Mouillot & Laure Velez & Camille Albouy & Nicolas Casajus & Joachim Claudet & Vincent Delbar & Rodolphe Devillers & Tom B. Letessier & Nicolas Loiseau & Stéphanie Manel & Laura Mannocci & Jessic, 2024. "The socioeconomic and environmental niche of protected areas reveals global conservation gaps and opportunities," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.

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