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The effect of eviction moratoria on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2

Author

Listed:
  • Anjalika Nande

    (Harvard University)

  • Justin Sheen

    (University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine)

  • Emma L. Walters

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • Brennan Klein

    (Northeastern University
    Northeastern University)

  • Matteo Chinazzi

    (Northeastern University
    Northeastern University)

  • Andrei H. Gheorghe

    (Harvard University)

  • Ben Adlam

    (Harvard University)

  • Julianna Shinnick

    (University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine)

  • Maria Florencia Tejeda

    (University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine)

  • Samuel V. Scarpino

    (Northeastern University)

  • Alessandro Vespignani

    (Northeastern University
    Northeastern University)

  • Andrew J. Greenlee

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • Daniel Schneider

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • Michael Z. Levy

    (University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine)

  • Alison L. Hill

    (Harvard University
    Johns Hopkins University)

Abstract

Massive unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an eviction crisis in US cities. Here we model the effect of evictions on SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, simulating viral transmission within and among households in a theoretical metropolitan area. We recreate a range of urban epidemic trajectories and project the course of the epidemic under two counterfactual scenarios, one in which a strict moratorium on evictions is in place and enforced, and another in which evictions are allowed to resume at baseline or increased rates. We find, across scenarios, that evictions lead to significant increases in infections. Applying our model to Philadelphia using locally-specific parameters shows that the increase is especially profound in models that consider realistically heterogenous cities in which both evictions and contacts occur more frequently in poorer neighborhoods. Our results provide a basis to assess eviction moratoria and show that policies to stem evictions are a warranted and important component of COVID-19 control.

Suggested Citation

  • Anjalika Nande & Justin Sheen & Emma L. Walters & Brennan Klein & Matteo Chinazzi & Andrei H. Gheorghe & Ben Adlam & Julianna Shinnick & Maria Florencia Tejeda & Samuel V. Scarpino & Alessandro Vespig, 2021. "The effect of eviction moratoria on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-22521-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22521-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Nayara Gonçalves Barbosa & Hellen Aparecida de Azevedo Pereira & Marcelo Vinicius Domingos Rodrigues dos Santos & Lise Maria Carvalho Mendes & Flávia Azevedo Gomes-Sponholz & Juliana Cristina dos Sant, 2023. "Assisting Homeless Women in a City in Brazil during the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Context of a Street Outreach Office: The Perceptions of Health Professionals," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(2), pages 1-10, January.
    2. Schwartz, Gabriel L. & Leifheit, Kathryn M. & Arcaya, Mariana C. & Keene, Danya, 2024. "Eviction as a community health exposure," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    3. Natalia Linos & Mary T. Bassett & Alejandra Salemi & Margareta Matache & Konstantinos Tararas & Rodney Kort & Susana Gomez & Michela Zaghi & Rosemary Lane & Brianna Harrison & Karin Lucke & Gianna San, 2022. "Opportunities to tackle structural racism and ethnicity-based discrimination in recovering and rebuilding from the COVID-19 pandemic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-4, December.
    4. Michele Tizzoni & Elaine O. Nsoesie & Laetitia Gauvin & Márton Karsai & Nicola Perra & Shweta Bansal, 2022. "Addressing the socioeconomic divide in computational modeling for infectious diseases," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    5. Sandrine Loubiere & Elisabetta Monfardini & Camille Allaria & Marine Mosnier & Agathe Allibert & Laetitia Ninove & Thomas Bosetti & Cyril Farnarier & Ilyes Hamouda & Pascal Auquier & Emilie Mosnier & , 2021. "Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among homeless people living rough, in shelters and squats: A large population-based study in France," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-16, September.

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