IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v12y2021i1d10.1038_s41467-021-22255-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Schutte

    (Peace Research Institute Oslo)

  • Jonas Vestby

    (Peace Research Institute Oslo)

  • Jørgen Carling

    (Peace Research Institute Oslo)

  • Halvard Buhaug

    (Peace Research Institute Oslo
    Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

Recent research suggests that climate variability and change significantly affect forced migration, within and across borders. Yet, migration is also informed by a range of non-climatic factors, and current assessments are impeded by a poor understanding of the relative importance of these determinants. Here, we evaluate the eligibility of climatic conditions relative to economic, political, and contextual factors for predicting bilateral asylum migration to the European Union—a form of forced migration that has been causally linked to climate variability. Results from a machine-learning prediction framework reveal that drought and temperature anomalies are weak predictors of asylum migration, challenging simplistic notions of climate-driven refugee flows. Instead, core contextual characteristics shape latent migration potential whereas political violence and repression are the most powerful predictors of time-varying migration flows. Future asylum migration flows are likely to respond much more to political changes in vulnerable societies than to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Schutte & Jonas Vestby & Jørgen Carling & Halvard Buhaug, 2021. "Climatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-22255-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22255-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22255-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-021-22255-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cottier, Fabien & Flahaux, Marie-Laurence & Ribot, Jesse & Seager, Richard & Ssekajja, Godfreyb, 2022. "Framing the frame: Cause and effect in climate-related migration," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Sidney Michelini & Barbora Šedová & Jacob Schewe & Katja Frieler, 2023. "Extreme weather impacts do not improve conflict predictions in Africa," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Myers, Emily & Sacks, Audrey & Tellez, Juan F. & Wibbels, Erik, 2024. "Forced displacement, social cohesion, and the state: Evidence from eight new studies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    4. Michele Ronco & José María Tárraga & Jordi Muñoz & María Piles & Eva Sevillano Marco & Qiang Wang & Maria Teresa Miranda Espinosa & Sylvain Ponserre & Gustau Camps-Valls, 2023. "Exploring interactions between socioeconomic context and natural hazards on human population displacement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-22255-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.