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Climatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Schutte

    (Peace Research Institute Oslo)

  • Jonas Vestby

    (Peace Research Institute Oslo)

  • Jørgen Carling

    (Peace Research Institute Oslo)

  • Halvard Buhaug

    (Peace Research Institute Oslo
    Norwegian University of Science and Technology)

Abstract

Recent research suggests that climate variability and change significantly affect forced migration, within and across borders. Yet, migration is also informed by a range of non-climatic factors, and current assessments are impeded by a poor understanding of the relative importance of these determinants. Here, we evaluate the eligibility of climatic conditions relative to economic, political, and contextual factors for predicting bilateral asylum migration to the European Union—a form of forced migration that has been causally linked to climate variability. Results from a machine-learning prediction framework reveal that drought and temperature anomalies are weak predictors of asylum migration, challenging simplistic notions of climate-driven refugee flows. Instead, core contextual characteristics shape latent migration potential whereas political violence and repression are the most powerful predictors of time-varying migration flows. Future asylum migration flows are likely to respond much more to political changes in vulnerable societies than to climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Schutte & Jonas Vestby & Jørgen Carling & Halvard Buhaug, 2021. "Climatic conditions are weak predictors of asylum migration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-22255-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22255-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Paola Vesco & Ghassan Baliki & Tilman Brück & Debarati Guha-Sapir & Jonathan Hall & Stefan Döring & Anneli Eriksson & Hanne Fjelde & Carl Henrik Knutsen & Maxine R. Leis & Hannes Mueller & Christopher, 2024. "The impacts of armed conflict on human development: a review of the literature," HiCN Working Papers 414, Households in Conflict Network.
    2. Cottier, Fabien & Flahaux, Marie-Laurence & Ribot, Jesse & Seager, Richard & Ssekajja, Godfreyb, 2022. "Framing the frame: Cause and effect in climate-related migration," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    3. Sidney Michelini & Barbora Šedová & Jacob Schewe & Katja Frieler, 2023. "Extreme weather impacts do not improve conflict predictions in Africa," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Myers, Emily & Sacks, Audrey & Tellez, Juan F. & Wibbels, Erik, 2024. "Forced displacement, social cohesion, and the state: Evidence from eight new studies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    5. Michele Ronco & José María Tárraga & Jordi Muñoz & María Piles & Eva Sevillano Marco & Qiang Wang & Maria Teresa Miranda Espinosa & Sylvain Ponserre & Gustau Camps-Valls, 2023. "Exploring interactions between socioeconomic context and natural hazards on human population displacement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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