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Hospital load and increased COVID-19 related mortality in Israel

Author

Listed:
  • Hagai Rossman

    (Weizmann Institute of Science
    Weizmann Institute of Science)

  • Tomer Meir

    (Weizmann Institute of Science
    Weizmann Institute of Science)

  • Jonathan Somer

    (Technion - Israel Institute of Technology)

  • Smadar Shilo

    (Weizmann Institute of Science
    Weizmann Institute of Science
    Institute of Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism, Rambam Health Care Campus)

  • Rom Gutman

    (Technion - Israel Institute of Technology)

  • Asaf Arie

    (Tel Aviv University)

  • Eran Segal

    (Weizmann Institute of Science
    Weizmann Institute of Science)

  • Uri Shalit

    (Technion - Israel Institute of Technology)

  • Malka Gorfine

    (Tel Aviv University)

Abstract

The spread of Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) has led to many healthcare systems being overwhelmed by the rapid emergence of new cases. Here, we study the ramifications of hospital load due to COVID-19 morbidity on in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19 by analyzing records of all 22,636 COVID-19 patients hospitalized in Israel from mid-July 2020 to mid-January 2021. We show that even under moderately heavy patient load (>500 countrywide hospitalized severely-ill patients; the Israeli Ministry of Health defined 800 severely-ill patients as the maximum capacity allowing adequate treatment), in-hospital mortality rate of patients with COVID-19 significantly increased compared to periods of lower patient load (250–500 severely-ill patients): 14-day mortality rates were 22.1% (Standard Error 3.1%) higher (mid-September to mid-October) and 27.2% (Standard Error 3.3%) higher (mid-December to mid-January). We further show this higher mortality rate cannot be attributed to changes in the patient population during periods of heavier load.

Suggested Citation

  • Hagai Rossman & Tomer Meir & Jonathan Somer & Smadar Shilo & Rom Gutman & Asaf Arie & Eran Segal & Uri Shalit & Malka Gorfine, 2021. "Hospital load and increased COVID-19 related mortality in Israel," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-22214-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22214-z
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    Cited by:

    1. Dizioli, Allan & Pinheiro, Roberto, 2021. "Information and inequality in the time of a pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    2. John F. Helliwell & Max B. Norton & Shun Wang & Lara B. Aknin & Haifang Huang, 2021. "Well-being Analysis Favours a Virus-Elimination Strategy for COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 29092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Epp, Markus & Jäger, Marius, 2021. "Network Exposure in the Propagation of the COVID-19 Pandemic," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242465, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Pedro C Álvarez-Esteban & Eustasio del Barrio & Oscar M Rueda & Cristina Rueda, 2021. "Predicting COVID-19 progression from diagnosis to recovery or death linking primary care and hospital records in Castilla y León (Spain)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-14, September.
    5. Proaño, Christian R. & Kukacka, Jiri & Makarewicz, Tomasz, 2024. "Belief-driven dynamics in a behavioral SEIRD macroeconomic model with sceptics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 312-333.
    6. Walmsley, Terrie & Rose, Adam & John, Richard & Wei, Dan & Hlávka, Jakub P. & Machado, Juan & Byrd, Katie, 2023. "Macroeconomic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).

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