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Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments

Author

Listed:
  • Zarrar Khan

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL))

  • Gokul Iyer

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL))

  • Pralit Patel

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL))

  • Son Kim

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL))

  • Mohamad Hejazi

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL))

  • Casey Burleyson

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL))

  • Marshall Wise

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL))

Abstract

Long-term temperature change and variability are expected to have significant impacts on future electric capacity and investments. This study improves upon past studies by accounting for hourly and monthly dynamics of electricity use, long-term socioeconomic drivers, and interactions of the electric sector with rest of the economy for a comprehensive analysis of temperature change impacts on cooling and heating services and their corresponding impact on electric capacity and investments. Using the United States as an example, here we show that under a scenario consistent with a socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2) and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5), mean temperature changes drive increases in annual electricity demands by 0.5-8% across states in 2100. But more importantly, peak temperature changes drive increases in capital investments by 3-22%. Moreover, temperature-induced capital investments are highly sensitive to both long-term socioeconomic assumptions and spatial heterogeneity of fuel prices and capital stock characteristics, which underscores the importance of a comprehensive approach to inform long-term electric sector planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Zarrar Khan & Gokul Iyer & Pralit Patel & Son Kim & Mohamad Hejazi & Casey Burleyson & Marshall Wise, 2021. "Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21785-1
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21785-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Pan, Xunzhang & Ma, Xueqing & Zhang, Yanru & Shao, Tianming & Peng, Tianduo & Li, Xiang & Wang, Lining & Chen, Wenying, 2023. "Implications of carbon neutrality for power sector investments and stranded coal assets in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    2. Castillo, Victhalia Zapata & Boer, Harmen-Sytze de & Muñoz, Raúl Maícas & Gernaat, David E.H.J. & Benders, René & van Vuuren, Detlef, 2022. "Future global electricity demand load curves," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    3. Flores, Francisco & Feijoo, Felipe & DeStephano, Paelina & Herc, Luka & Pfeifer, Antun & Duić, Neven, 2024. "Assessment of the impacts of renewable energy variability in long-term decarbonization strategies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).
    4. Filippo Pavanello & Enrica Cian & Marinella Davide & Malcolm Mistry & Talita Cruz & Paula Bezerra & Dattakiran Jagu & Sebastian Renner & Roberto Schaeffer & André F. P. Lucena, 2021. "Air-conditioning and the adaptation cooling deficit in emerging economies," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Parrado-Hernando, Gonzalo & Herc, Luka & Pfeifer, Antun & Capellán-Perez, Iñigo & Batas Bjelić, Ilija & Duić, Neven & Frechoso-Escudero, Fernando & Miguel González, Luis Javier & Gjorgievski, Vladimir, 2022. "Capturing features of hourly-resolution energy models through statistical annual indicators," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 1192-1223.

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