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The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Lander Willem

    (University of Antwerp)

  • Steven Abrams

    (UHasselt
    University of Antwerp)

  • Pieter J. K. Libin

    (UHasselt
    Vrije Universiteit Brussel
    University of Leuven)

  • Pietro Coletti

    (UHasselt)

  • Elise Kuylen

    (University of Antwerp
    UHasselt)

  • Oana Petrof

    (UHasselt)

  • Signe Møgelmose

    (UHasselt
    University of Antwerp)

  • James Wambua

    (UHasselt)

  • Sereina A. Herzog

    (University of Antwerp)

  • Christel Faes

    (UHasselt)

  • Philippe Beutels

    (University of Antwerp
    The University of New South Wales)

  • Niel Hens

    (University of Antwerp
    UHasselt)

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused many governments to impose policies restricting social interactions. A controlled and persistent release of lockdown measures covers many potential strategies and is subject to extensive scenario analyses. Here, we use an individual-based model (STRIDE) to simulate interactions between 11 million inhabitants of Belgium at different levels including extended household settings, i.e., “household bubbles”. The burden of COVID-19 is impacted by both the intensity and frequency of physical contacts, and therefore, household bubbles have the potential to reduce hospital admissions by 90%. In addition, we find that it is crucial to complete contact tracing 4 days after symptom onset. Assumptions on the susceptibility of children affect the impact of school reopening, though we find that business and leisure-related social mixing patterns have more impact on COVID-19 associated disease burden. An optimal deployment of the mitigation policies under study require timely compliance to physical distancing, testing and self-isolation.

Suggested Citation

  • Lander Willem & Steven Abrams & Pieter J. K. Libin & Pietro Coletti & Elise Kuylen & Oana Petrof & Signe Møgelmose & James Wambua & Sereina A. Herzog & Christel Faes & Philippe Beutels & Niel Hens, 2021. "The impact of contact tracing and household bubbles on deconfinement strategies for COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21747-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21747-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Zheng, Junjun & He, Yujie & Ren, Tianyu & Huang, Yongchao, 2022. "Evolution of cooperation in public goods games with segregated networks and periodic invasion," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 596(C).

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