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Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China

Author

Listed:
  • Shixiong Hu

    (Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Wei Wang

    (Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education)

  • Yan Wang

    (Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education)

  • Maria Litvinova

    (Indiana University School of Public Health
    ISI Foundation)

  • Kaiwei Luo

    (Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Lingshuang Ren

    (Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education)

  • Qianlai Sun

    (Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Xinghui Chen

    (Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education)

  • Ge Zeng

    (Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Jing Li

    (Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education)

  • Lu Liang

    (Sichuan University)

  • Zhihong Deng

    (Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Wen Zheng

    (Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education)

  • Mei Li

    (Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education)

  • Hao Yang

    (Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Jinxin Guo

    (Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education)

  • Kai Wang

    (Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education)

  • Xinhua Chen

    (Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education)

  • Ziyan Liu

    (Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Han Yan

    (Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education)

  • Huilin Shi

    (Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education)

  • Zhiyuan Chen

    (Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education)

  • Yonghong Zhou

    (Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education)

  • Kaiyuan Sun

    (Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health)

  • Alessandro Vespignani

    (ISI Foundation
    Northeastern University)

  • Cécile Viboud

    (Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health)

  • Lidong Gao

    (Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention)

  • Marco Ajelli

    (Indiana University School of Public Health
    Northeastern University)

  • Hongjie Yu

    (Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education
    Fudan University
    Shanghai Key Laboratory of Infectious Diseases and Biosafety Emergency Response
    Shanghai Institute of Infectious Disease and Biosecurity, Fudan University)

Abstract

Several mechanisms driving SARS-CoV-2 transmission remain unclear. Based on individual records of 1178 potential SARS-CoV-2 infectors and their 15,648 contacts in Hunan, China, we estimated key transmission parameters. The mean generation time was estimated to be 5.7 (median: 5.5, IQR: 4.5, 6.8) days, with infectiousness peaking 1.8 days before symptom onset, with 95% of transmission events occurring between 8.8 days before and 9.5 days after symptom onset. Most transmission events occurred during the pre-symptomatic phase (59.2%). SARS-CoV-2 susceptibility to infection increases with age, while transmissibility is not significantly different between age groups and between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. Contacts in households and exposure to first-generation cases are associated with higher odds of transmission. Our findings support the hypothesis that children can effectively transmit SARS-CoV-2 and highlight how pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission can hinder control efforts.

Suggested Citation

  • Shixiong Hu & Wei Wang & Yan Wang & Maria Litvinova & Kaiwei Luo & Lingshuang Ren & Qianlai Sun & Xinghui Chen & Ge Zeng & Jing Li & Lu Liang & Zhihong Deng & Wen Zheng & Mei Li & Hao Yang & Jinxin Gu, 2021. "Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21710-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21710-6
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    Cited by:

    1. Jonas Dehning & Sebastian B. Mohr & Sebastian Contreras & Philipp Dönges & Emil N. Iftekhar & Oliver Schulz & Philip Bechtle & Viola Priesemann, 2023. "Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    2. Sen Pei & Sasikiran Kandula & Jaime Cascante Vega & Wan Yang & Steffen Foerster & Corinne Thompson & Jennifer Baumgartner & Shama Desai Ahuja & Kathleen Blaney & Jay K. Varma & Theodore Long & Jeffrey, 2022. "Contact tracing reveals community transmission of COVID-19 in New York City," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    3. Qian Gao & Wen-Peng Shang & Ming-Xia Jing, 2022. "Effect of Nucleic Acid Screening Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Cities of Different Scales and Assessment of Related Testing Resource Demands—Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(20), pages 1-15, October.
    4. Hosseini-Motlagh, Seyyed-Mahdi & Samani, Mohammad Reza Ghatreh & Homaei, Shamim, 2023. "Design of control strategies to help prevent the spread of COVID-19 pandemic," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(1), pages 219-238.

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