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Orchestrating performance of healthcare networks subjected to the compound events of natural disasters and pandemic

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  • Emad M. Hassan

    (Colorado State University)

  • Hussam N. Mahmoud

    (Colorado State University)

Abstract

The current COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the vulnerability of healthcare systems worldwide. When combined with natural disasters, pandemics can further strain an already exhausted healthcare system. To date, frameworks for quantifying the collective effect of the two events on hospitals are nonexistent. Moreover, analytical methods for capturing the dynamic spatiotemporal variability in capacity and demand of the healthcare system posed by different stressors are lacking. Here, we investigate the combined impact of wildfire and pandemic on a network of hospitals. We combine wildfire data with varying courses of the spread of COVID-19 to evaluate the effectiveness of different strategies for managing patient demand. We show that losing access to medical care is a function of the relative occurrence time between the two events and is substantial in some cases. By applying viable mitigation strategies and optimizing resource allocation, patient outcomes could be substantially improved under the combined hazards.

Suggested Citation

  • Emad M. Hassan & Hussam N. Mahmoud, 2021. "Orchestrating performance of healthcare networks subjected to the compound events of natural disasters and pandemic," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21581-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21581-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Amira Mohamed Taha & Hussam Mahmoud & Emad M. Hassan & Mohamed M. Ghonaim, 2024. "Harmonizing vaccine and infrastructure development to tame cholera outbreaks across Africa," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-3, December.
    2. Felix Kwabena Donkor & Stergios-Aristoteles Mitoulis & Sotirios Argyroudis & Hassan Aboelkhair & Juan Antonio Ballesteros Canovas & Ahmad Bashir & Ginbert Permejo Cuaton & Samo Diatta & Maral Habibi &, 2022. "SDG Final Decade of Action: Resilient Pathways to Build Back Better from High-Impact Low-Probability (HILP) Events," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-14, November.
    3. Mohammad Amin Hariri-Ardebili & Siamak Sattar & Katherine Johnson & Christopher Clavin & Juan Fung & Luis Ceferino, 2022. "A Perspective towards Multi-Hazard Resilient Systems: Natural Hazards and Pandemics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-29, April.
    4. Mahmoud, Hussam & Kirsch, Thomas & O'Neil, Dan & Anderson, Shelby, 2023. "The resilience of health care systems following major disruptive events: Current practice and a path forward," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).

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