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Carbon prospecting in tropical forests for climate change mitigation

Author

Listed:
  • Lian Pin Koh

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Yiwen Zeng

    (National University of Singapore)

  • Tasya Vadya Sarira

    (National University of Singapore
    The University of Adelaide)

  • Kelly Siman

    (National University of Singapore)

Abstract

Carbon finance projects that protect tropical forests could support both nature conservation and climate change mitigation goals. Global demand for nature-based carbon credits is outpacing their supply, due partly to gaps in knowledge needed to inform and prioritize investment decisions. Here, we show that at current carbon market prices the protection of tropical forests can generate investible carbon amounting to 1.8 (±1.1) GtCO2e yr−1 globally. We further show that financially viable carbon projects could generate return-on-investment amounting to $46.0b y−1 in net present value (Asia-Pacific: $24.6b y−1; Americas: $19.1b y−1; Africa: $2.4b y−1). However, we also find that ~80% (1.24 billion ha) of forest carbon sites would be financially unviable for failing to break even over the project lifetime. From a conservation perspective, unless carbon prices increase in the future, it is imperative to implement other conservation interventions, in addition to carbon finance, to safeguard carbon stocks and biodiversity in vulnerable forests.

Suggested Citation

  • Lian Pin Koh & Yiwen Zeng & Tasya Vadya Sarira & Kelly Siman, 2021. "Carbon prospecting in tropical forests for climate change mitigation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21560-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21560-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Huirong & Luo, Na, 2024. "Climate uncertainty and green index volatility: Empirical insights from Chinese financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Xu, Xin & Huang, Shupei & Lucey, Brian M. & An, Haizhong, 2023. "The impacts of climate policy uncertainty on stock markets: Comparison between China and the US," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Yiwen Zeng & Rebecca K. Runting & James E. M. Watson & Luis Roman Carrasco, 2022. "Telecoupled environmental impacts are an obstacle to meeting the sustainable development goals," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 76-82, February.
    4. Shuohua Liu & Xiao Zhang & Yifan Zhou & Shunbo Yao, 2021. "Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Carbon Sink Dynamics at County Scale: A Case Study of Shaanxi Province, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(24), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Tasya Vadya Sarira & Yiwen Zeng & Rachel Neugarten & Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer & Lian Pin Koh, 2022. "Co-benefits of forest carbon projects in Southeast Asia," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 5(5), pages 393-396, May.
    6. Hao, Xinyu & Sun, Wen & Zhang, Xiaoling, 2023. "How does a scarcer allowance remake the carbon market? An evolutionary game analysis from the perspective of stakeholders," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 280(C).

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