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Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author

Listed:
  • Silvia R. Santos da Silva

    (University of Maryland
    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Mohamad I. Hejazi

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Gokul Iyer

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Thomas B. Wild

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
    Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center)

  • Matthew Binsted

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm

    (University of Maryland
    Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
    Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center)

  • Pralit Patel

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Abigail C. Snyder

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Chris R. Vernon

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

Abstract

Climate change mitigation will require substantial investments in renewables. In addition, climate change will affect future renewable supply and hence, power sector investment requirements. We study the implications of climate impacts on renewables for power sector investments under deep decarbonization using a global integrated assessment model. We focus on Latin American and Caribbean, an under-studied region but of great interest due to its strong role in international climate mitigation and vulnerability to climate change. We find that accounting for climate impacts on renewables results in significant additional investments ($12–114 billion by 2100 across Latin American countries) for a region with weak financial infrastructure. We also demonstrate that accounting for climate impacts only on hydropower—a primary focus of previous studies—significantly underestimates cumulative investments, particularly in scenarios with high intermittent renewable deployment. Our study underscores the importance of comprehensive analyses of climate impacts on renewables for improved energy planning.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia R. Santos da Silva & Mohamad I. Hejazi & Gokul Iyer & Thomas B. Wild & Matthew Binsted & Fernando Miralles-Wilhelm & Pralit Patel & Abigail C. Snyder & Chris R. Vernon, 2021. "Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21502-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21502-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Pan, Xunzhang & Ma, Xueqing & Zhang, Yanru & Shao, Tianming & Peng, Tianduo & Li, Xiang & Wang, Lining & Chen, Wenying, 2023. "Implications of carbon neutrality for power sector investments and stranded coal assets in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    2. Matamala, Yolanda & Feijoo, Felipe, 2021. "A two-stage stochastic Stackelberg model for microgrid operation with chance constraints for renewable energy generation uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    3. Plaga, Leonie Sara & Bertsch, Valentin, 2023. "Methods for assessing climate uncertainty in energy system models — A systematic literature review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    4. Cui, Qiang & Jia, Zike, 2023. "Low-efficient aircraft affecting future aviation carbon transfer among South American countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    5. Licandeo, Francisca & Flores, Francisco & Feijoo, Felipe, 2023. "Assessing the impacts of economy-wide emissions policies in the water, energy, and land systems considering water scarcity scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    6. Hussain, Syed Asad & Razi, Faran & Hewage, Kasun & Sadiq, Rehan, 2023. "The perspective of energy poverty and 1st energy crisis of green transition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    7. Mastroeni, Loretta & Mazzoccoli, Alessandro & Vellucci, Pierluigi, 2024. "Wavelet entropy and complexity–entropy curves approach for energy commodity price predictability amid the transition to alternative energy sources," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    8. Ding, Qian & Huang, Jianbai & Chen, Jinyu & Luo, Xianfeng, 2024. "Climate warming, renewable energy consumption and rare earth market: Evidence from the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    9. Matamala, Yolanda & Flores, Francisco & Arriet, Andrea & Khan, Zarrar & Feijoo, Felipe, 2023. "Probabilistic feasibility assessment of sequestration reliance for climate targets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 272(C).
    10. Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad & Ma, Feng & Huynh, Toan L.D., 2022. "Climate policy uncertainty and world renewable energy index volatility forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    11. Guangsheng Pan & Qinran Hu & Wei Gu & Shixing Ding & Haifeng Qiu & Yuping Lu, 2021. "Assessment of plum rain’s impact on power system emissions in Yangtze-Huaihe River basin of China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    12. Perera, A.T.D. & Khayatian, F. & Eggimann, S. & Orehounig, K. & Halgamuge, Saman, 2022. "Quantifying the climate and human-system-driven uncertainties in energy planning by using GANs," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    13. Azer Dilanchiev & Bobur Urinov & Sugra Humbatova & Gunay Panahova, 2024. "Catalyzing climate change mitigation: investigating the influence of renewable energy investments across BRICS," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-32, June.
    14. Vizuete-Montero, Marco & Carrera-Oscullo, Pablo & Barreno-Silva, Nancy De Las Mercedes & Sánchez, Maritza & Figueroa-Saavedra, Hilter & Moya, Wladimir, 2024. "Agroecological alternatives for small and medium tropical crop farmers in the Ecuadorian Amazon for adaptation to climate change," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).

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