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Emergent vulnerability to climate-driven disturbances in European forests

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Forzieri

    (Joint Research Centre)

  • Marco Girardello

    (Joint Research Centre)

  • Guido Ceccherini

    (Joint Research Centre)

  • Jonathan Spinoni

    (Joint Research Centre)

  • Luc Feyen

    (Joint Research Centre)

  • Henrik Hartmann

    (Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry)

  • Pieter S. A. Beck

    (Joint Research Centre)

  • Gustau Camps-Valls

    (Universitat de València)

  • Gherado Chirici

    (University of Florence)

  • Achille Mauri

    (University of Helsinki)

  • Alessandro Cescatti

    (Joint Research Centre)

Abstract

Forest disturbance regimes are expected to intensify as Earth’s climate changes. Quantifying forest vulnerability to disturbances and understanding the underlying mechanisms is crucial to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, observational evidence is largely missing at regional to continental scales. Here, we quantify the vulnerability of European forests to fires, windthrows and insect outbreaks during the period 1979–2018 by integrating machine learning with disturbance data and satellite products. We show that about 33.4 billion tonnes of forest biomass could be seriously affected by these disturbances, with higher relative losses when exposed to windthrows (40%) and fires (34%) compared to insect outbreaks (26%). The spatial pattern in vulnerability is strongly controlled by the interplay between forest characteristics and background climate. Hotspot regions for vulnerability are located at the borders of the climate envelope, in both southern and northern Europe. There is a clear trend in overall forest vulnerability that is driven by a warming-induced reduction in plant defence mechanisms to insect outbreaks, especially at high latitudes.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Forzieri & Marco Girardello & Guido Ceccherini & Jonathan Spinoni & Luc Feyen & Henrik Hartmann & Pieter S. A. Beck & Gustau Camps-Valls & Gherado Chirici & Achille Mauri & Alessandro Cescatt, 2021. "Emergent vulnerability to climate-driven disturbances in European forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21399-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21399-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Dingcai Yin & Xiaohua Gou & Haijiang Yang & Kai Wang & Jie Liu & Yiran Zhang & Linlin Gao, 2023. "Elevation-dependent tree growth response to recent warming and drought on eastern Tibetan Plateau," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(6), pages 1-18, June.
    2. Gerhard Karrer & Gabriele Bassler-Binder & Wolfgang Willner, 2022. "Assessment of Drought-Tolerant Provenances of Austria’s Indigenous Tree Species," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-30, March.
    3. Tobias Mette & Susanne Brandl & Christian Kölling, 2021. "Climate Analogues for Temperate European Forests to Raise Silvicultural Evidence Using Twin Regions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-21, June.
    4. Zefeng Chen & Weiguang Wang & Giovanni Forzieri & Alessandro Cescatti, 2024. "Transition from positive to negative indirect CO2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Bottaro, Giorgia & Liagre, Ludwig & Pettenella, Davide, 2024. "The Forest Sector in EU Member States' National Recovery and Resilience Plans: a preliminary analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).

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