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Seasonal biological carryover dominates northern vegetation growth

Author

Listed:
  • Xu Lian

    (Peking University)

  • Shilong Piao

    (Peking University
    Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Anping Chen

    (Colorado State University)

  • Kai Wang

    (Peking University)

  • Xiangyi Li

    (Peking University)

  • Wolfgang Buermann

    (Augsburg University
    University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Chris Huntingford

    (UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology)

  • Josep Peñuelas

    (CREAF, Cerdanyola del Valles
    CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Bellaterra)

  • Hao Xu

    (Peking University)

  • Ranga B. Myneni

    (Boston University)

Abstract

The state of ecosystems is influenced strongly by their past, and describing this carryover effect is important to accurately forecast their future behaviors. However, the strength and persistence of this carryover effect on ecosystem dynamics in comparison to that of simultaneous environmental drivers are still poorly understood. Here, we show that vegetation growth carryover (VGC), defined as the effect of present states of vegetation on subsequent growth, exerts strong positive impacts on seasonal vegetation growth over the Northern Hemisphere. In particular, this VGC of early growing-season vegetation growth is even stronger than past and co-occurring climate on determining peak-to-late season vegetation growth, and is the primary contributor to the recently observed annual greening trend. The effect of seasonal VGC persists into the subsequent year but not further. Current process-based ecosystem models greatly underestimate the VGC effect, and may therefore underestimate the CO2 sequestration potential of northern vegetation under future warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu Lian & Shilong Piao & Anping Chen & Kai Wang & Xiangyi Li & Wolfgang Buermann & Chris Huntingford & Josep Peñuelas & Hao Xu & Ranga B. Myneni, 2021. "Seasonal biological carryover dominates northern vegetation growth," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-21223-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21223-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuquan Qu & Diego G. Miralles & Sander Veraverbeke & Harry Vereecken & Carsten Montzka, 2023. "Wildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    2. Xu Lian & Sujong Jeong & Chang-Eui Park & Hao Xu & Laurent Z. X. Li & Tao Wang & Pierre Gentine & Josep Peñuelas & Shilong Piao, 2022. "Biophysical impacts of northern vegetation changes on seasonal warming patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.

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