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The challenges of containing SARS-CoV-2 via test-trace-and-isolate

Author

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  • Sebastian Contreras

    (Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization
    Centre for Biotechnology and Bioengineering, Universidad de Chile)

  • Jonas Dehning

    (Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization)

  • Matthias Loidolt

    (Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization)

  • Johannes Zierenberg

    (Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization)

  • F. Paul Spitzner

    (Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization)

  • Jorge H. Urrea-Quintero

    (Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization)

  • Sebastian B. Mohr

    (Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization)

  • Michael Wilczek

    (Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization
    Institute for the Dynamics of Complex Systems, University of Göttingen)

  • Michael Wibral

    (Campus Institute for Dynamics of Biological Networks, University of Göttingen)

  • Viola Priesemann

    (Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization
    Institute for the Dynamics of Complex Systems, University of Göttingen)

Abstract

Without a cure, vaccine, or proven long-term immunity against SARS-CoV-2, test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) strategies present a promising tool to contain its spread. For any TTI strategy, however, mitigation is challenged by pre- and asymptomatic transmission, TTI-avoiders, and undetected spreaders, which strongly contribute to ”hidden" infection chains. Here, we study a semi-analytical model and identify two tipping points between controlled and uncontrolled spread: (1) the behavior-driven reproduction number $${R}_{t}^{H}$$ R t H of the hidden chains becomes too large to be compensated by the TTI capabilities, and (2) the number of new infections exceeds the tracing capacity. Both trigger a self-accelerating spread. We investigate how these tipping points depend on challenges like limited cooperation, missing contacts, and imperfect isolation. Our results suggest that TTI alone is insufficient to contain an otherwise unhindered spread of SARS-CoV-2, implying that complementary measures like social distancing and improved hygiene remain necessary.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Contreras & Jonas Dehning & Matthias Loidolt & Johannes Zierenberg & F. Paul Spitzner & Jorge H. Urrea-Quintero & Sebastian B. Mohr & Michael Wilczek & Michael Wibral & Viola Priesemann, 2021. "The challenges of containing SARS-CoV-2 via test-trace-and-isolate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-20699-8
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20699-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Freire-Flores, Danton & Llanovarced-Kawles, Nyna & Sanchez-Daza, Anamaria & Olivera-Nappa, Álvaro, 2021. "On the heterogeneous spread of COVID-19 in Chile," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    2. Martin Hellwig & Viola Priesemann & Guntram B. Wolff, 2021. "Reducing the Mobility of SARS-CoV-2 Variants to Safeguard Containments," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(4), pages 234-236, July.
    3. Sebastian Contreras & Jonas Dehning & Viola Priesemann, 2022. "Describing a landscape we are yet discovering," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 106(3), pages 399-402, September.
    4. Jonas Dehning & Sebastian B. Mohr & Sebastian Contreras & Philipp Dönges & Emil N. Iftekhar & Oliver Schulz & Philip Bechtle & Viola Priesemann, 2023. "Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Li, Tangjuan & Xiao, Yanni, 2023. "Optimal strategies for coordinating infection control and socio-economic activities," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 533-555.
    6. Contreras, Sebastian & Oróstica, Karen Y. & Daza-Sanchez, Anamaria & Wagner, Joel & Dönges, Philipp & Medina-Ortiz, David & Jara, Matias & Verdugo, Ricardo & Conca, Carlos & Priesemann, Viola & Oliver, 2023. "Model-based assessment of sampling protocols for infectious disease genomic surveillance," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    7. Nagel, Kai & Rakow, Christian & Müller, Sebastian A., 2021. "Realistic agent-based simulation of infection dynamics and percolation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 584(C).
    8. Atul Pokharel & Robert Soulé & Avi Silberschatz, 2021. "A case for location based contact tracing," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 420-438, June.

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