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Carbonate-silicate cycle predictions of Earth-like planetary climates and testing the habitable zone concept

Author

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  • Owen R. Lehmer

    (NASA Ames Research Center
    University of Washington
    Virtual Planetary Laboratory at the University of Washington)

  • David C. Catling

    (University of Washington
    Virtual Planetary Laboratory at the University of Washington)

  • Joshua Krissansen-Totton

    (Virtual Planetary Laboratory at the University of Washington
    MS UCO/Lick Observatory)

Abstract

In the conventional habitable zone (HZ) concept, a CO2-H2O greenhouse maintains surface liquid water. Through the water-mediated carbonate-silicate weathering cycle, atmospheric CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) responds to changes in surface temperature, stabilizing the climate over geologic timescales. We show that this weathering feedback ought to produce a log-linear relationship between pCO2 and incident flux on Earth-like planets in the HZ. However, this trend has scatter because geophysical and physicochemical parameters can vary, such as land area for weathering and CO2 outgassing fluxes. Using a coupled climate and carbonate-silicate weathering model, we quantify the likely scatter in pCO2 with orbital distance throughout the HZ. From this dispersion, we predict a two-dimensional relationship between incident flux and pCO2 in the HZ and show that it could be detected from at least 83 (2σ) Earth-like exoplanet observations. If fewer Earth-like exoplanets are observed, testing the HZ hypothesis from this relationship could be difficult.

Suggested Citation

  • Owen R. Lehmer & David C. Catling & Joshua Krissansen-Totton, 2020. "Carbonate-silicate cycle predictions of Earth-like planetary climates and testing the habitable zone concept," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-19896-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19896-2
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