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Coastal flooding will disproportionately impact people on river deltas

Author

Listed:
  • Douglas A. Edmonds

    (Indiana University)

  • Rebecca L. Caldwell

    (Indiana University
    Chevron Corporation)

  • Eduardo S. Brondizio

    (Indiana University
    Indiana University)

  • Sacha M. O. Siani

    (Indiana University
    Indiana University)

Abstract

Climate change is intensifying tropical cyclones, accelerating sea-level rise, and increasing coastal flooding. River deltas are especially vulnerable to flooding because of their low elevations and densely populated cities. Yet, we do not know how many people live on deltas and their exposure to flooding. Using a new global dataset, we show that 339 million people lived on river deltas in 2017 and 89% of those people live in the same latitudinal zone as most tropical cyclone activity. We calculate that 41% (31 million) of the global population exposed to tropical cyclone flooding live on deltas, with 92% (28 million) in developing or least developed economies. Furthermore, 80% (25 million) live on sediment-starved deltas, which cannot naturally mitigate flooding through sediment deposition. Given that coastal flooding will only worsen, we must reframe this problem as one that will disproportionately impact people on river deltas, particularly in developing and least-developed economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Douglas A. Edmonds & Rebecca L. Caldwell & Eduardo S. Brondizio & Sacha M. O. Siani, 2020. "Coastal flooding will disproportionately impact people on river deltas," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-18531-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18531-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Dias, Vitor M. & Soares, Pedro Paulo de Miranda Araújo & Brondizio, Eduardo S. & Cruz, Sandra Helena Ribeiro, 2021. "Grassroots mobilization in Brazil’s urban Amazon: Global investments, persistent floods, and local resistance across political and legal arenas," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Si Ha & Hirokazu Tatano & Nobuhito Mori & Toshio Fujimi & Xinyu Jiang, 2021. "Cost–benefit analysis of adaptation to storm surge due to climate change in Osaka Bay, Japan," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-20, December.
    3. Joshua Alan Lewis, 2023. "Pathologies of Porosity: Looming Transitions Along the Mississippi River Ship Channel," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(3), pages 263-274.
    4. Nguyet Anh Dang & Rubianca Benavidez & Stephanie Anne Tomscha & Ho Nguyen & Dung Duc Tran & Diep Thi Hong Nguyen & Ho Huu Loc & Bethanna Marie Jackson, 2021. "Ecosystem Service Modelling to Support Nature-Based Flood Water Management in the Vietnamese Mekong River Delta," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-28, December.

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