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An investigation of causal relationships between prediabetes and vascular complications

Author

Listed:
  • Pascal M. Mutie

    (Lund University, Skåne University Hospital)

  • Hugo Pomares-Millan

    (Lund University, Skåne University Hospital)

  • Naeimeh Atabaki-Pasdar

    (Lund University, Skåne University Hospital)

  • Nina Jordan

    (Regulatory Affairs Intelligence, Novo Nordisk A/S)

  • Rachel Adams

    (Regulatory Affairs—Neuroscience and Cardiovascular Metabolism, Janssen)

  • Nicole L. Daly

    (Regulatory Affairs—Neuroscience and Cardiovascular Metabolism, Janssen)

  • Juan Fernandes Tajes

    (Lund University, Skåne University Hospital)

  • Giuseppe N. Giordano

    (Lund University, Skåne University Hospital)

  • Paul W. Franks

    (Lund University, Skåne University Hospital
    Umeå University
    Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health)

Abstract

Prediabetes is a state of glycaemic dysregulation below the diagnostic threshold of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Globally, ~352 million people have prediabetes, of which 35–50% develop full-blown diabetes within five years. T2D and its complications are costly to treat, causing considerable morbidity and early mortality. Whether prediabetes is causally related to diabetes complications is unclear. Here we report a causal inference analysis investigating the effects of prediabetes in coronary artery disease, stroke and chronic kidney disease, complemented by a systematic review of relevant observational studies. Although the observational studies suggest that prediabetes is broadly associated with diabetes complications, the causal inference analysis revealed that prediabetes is only causally related with coronary artery disease, with no evidence of causal effects on other diabetes complications. In conclusion, prediabetes likely causes coronary artery disease and its prevention is likely to be most effective if initiated prior to the onset of diabetes.

Suggested Citation

  • Pascal M. Mutie & Hugo Pomares-Millan & Naeimeh Atabaki-Pasdar & Nina Jordan & Rachel Adams & Nicole L. Daly & Juan Fernandes Tajes & Giuseppe N. Giordano & Paul W. Franks, 2020. "An investigation of causal relationships between prediabetes and vascular complications," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-18386-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18386-9
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