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Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse

Author

Listed:
  • K. K. Holsman

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center
    University of Washington)

  • A. C. Haynie

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center)

  • A. B. Hollowed

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center
    University of Washington)

  • J. C. P. Reum

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center
    University of Washington
    University of Tasmania)

  • K. Aydin

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center
    University of Washington)

  • A. J. Hermann

    (University of Washington
    Ocean Environment Research Division, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)

  • W. Cheng

    (University of Washington
    Ocean Environment Research Division, NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)

  • A. Faig

    (University of Washington)

  • J. N. Ianelli

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center
    University of Washington)

  • K. A. Kearney

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Alaska Fisheries Science Center
    University of Washington)

  • A. E. Punt

    (University of Washington)

Abstract

Climate change is impacting fisheries worldwide with uncertain outcomes for food and nutritional security. Using management strategy evaluations for key US fisheries in the eastern Bering Sea we find that Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management (EBFM) measures forestall future declines under climate change over non-EBFM approaches. Yet, benefits are species-specific and decrease markedly after 2050. Under high-baseline carbon emission scenarios (RCP 8.5), end-of-century (2075–2100) pollock and Pacific cod fisheries collapse in >70% and >35% of all simulations, respectively. Our analysis suggests that 2.1–2.3 °C (modeled summer bottom temperature) is a tipping point of rapid decline in gadid biomass and catch. Multiyear stanzas above 2.1 °C become commonplace in projections from ~2030 onward, with higher agreement under RCP 8.5 than simulations with moderate carbon mitigation (i.e., RCP 4.5). We find that EBFM ameliorates climate change impacts on fisheries in the near-term, but long-term EBFM benefits are limited by the magnitude of anticipated change.

Suggested Citation

  • K. K. Holsman & A. C. Haynie & A. B. Hollowed & J. C. P. Reum & K. Aydin & A. J. Hermann & W. Cheng & A. Faig & J. N. Ianelli & K. A. Kearney & A. E. Punt, 2020. "Ecosystem-based fisheries management forestalls climate-driven collapse," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-18300-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18300-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Helene Gomes & Luc Doyen & Fabian Blanchard & Adrien Lagarde, 2021. "Viable and ecosystem-based management for tropical small-scale fisheries facing climate change," Bordeaux Economics Working Papers 2021-24, Bordeaux School of Economics (BSE).
    2. Xu, Xin & Huang, Shupei & Lucey, Brian M. & An, Haizhong, 2023. "The impacts of climate policy uncertainty on stock markets: Comparison between China and the US," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Farahmand, Shekoofeh & Hilmi, Nathalie & Cinar, Mine & Safa, Alain & Lam, Vicky W.Y. & Djoundourian, Salpie & Shahin, Wassim & Ben Lamine, Emna & Schickele, Alexandre & Guidetti, Paolo & Allemand, Den, 2023. "Climate change impacts on Mediterranean fisheries: A sensitivity and vulnerability analysis for main commercial species," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    4. Chu, Long & Grafton, R. Quentin & Kompas, Tom, 2022. "Optimisation of economic performance and stock resilience in marine capture fisheries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 863-875.

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