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A less cloudy picture of the inter-model spread in future global warming projections

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaoming Hu

    (Sun Yat-sen University
    Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai))

  • Hanjie Fan

    (Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Ming Cai

    (Florida State University)

  • Sergio A. Sejas

    (Science Systems and Applications, Inc)

  • Patrick Taylor

    (Climate Science Branch, NASA Langley Research Center)

  • Song Yang

    (Sun Yat-sen University
    Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai))

Abstract

Model warming projections, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, have a large inter-model spread in both their geographical warming patterns and global mean values. The inter-model warming pattern spread (WPS) limits our ability to foresee the severity of regional impacts on nature and society. This paper focuses on uncovering the feedbacks responsible for the WPS. Here, we identify two dominant WPS modes whose global mean values also explain 98.7% of the global warming spread (GWS). We show that the ice-albedo feedback spread explains uncertainties in polar regions while the water vapor feedback spread explains uncertainties elsewhere. Other processes, including the cloud feedback, contribute less to the WPS as their spreads tend to cancel each other out in a model-dependent manner. Our findings suggest that the WPS and GWS could be significantly reduced by narrowing the inter-model spreads of ice-albedo and water vapor feedbacks, and better understanding the spatial coupling between feedbacks.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoming Hu & Hanjie Fan & Ming Cai & Sergio A. Sejas & Patrick Taylor & Song Yang, 2020. "A less cloudy picture of the inter-model spread in future global warming projections," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-18227-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18227-9
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