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Forest carbon sink neutralized by pervasive growth-lifespan trade-offs

Author

Listed:
  • R. J. W. Brienen

    (University of Leeds)

  • L. Caldwell

    (University of Leeds)

  • L. Duchesne

    (Direction de la recherche forestière)

  • S. Voelker

    (SUNY-ESF, Syracuse)

  • J. Barichivich

    (IPSL, CNRS/CEA/UVSQ
    Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso)

  • M. Baliva

    (University of Tuscia)

  • G. Ceccantini

    (Department of Botany)

  • A. Filippo

    (University of Tuscia)

  • S. Helama

    (Ounasjoentie 6)

  • G. M. Locosselli

    (Department of Botany)

  • L. Lopez

    (Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), CONICET-Mendoza, C.C. 330, (5500))

  • G. Piovesan

    (University of Tuscia)

  • J. Schöngart

    (Coordenação de Dinâmica Ambiental (CODAM))

  • R. Villalba

    (Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA), CONICET-Mendoza, C.C. 330, (5500))

  • E. Gloor

    (University of Leeds)

Abstract

Land vegetation is currently taking up large amounts of atmospheric CO2, possibly due to tree growth stimulation. Extant models predict that this growth stimulation will continue to cause a net carbon uptake this century. However, there are indications that increased growth rates may shorten trees′ lifespan and thus recent increases in forest carbon stocks may be transient due to lagged increases in mortality. Here we show that growth-lifespan trade-offs are indeed near universal, occurring across almost all species and climates. This trade-off is directly linked to faster growth reducing tree lifespan, and not due to covariance with climate or environment. Thus, current tree growth stimulation will, inevitably, result in a lagged increase in canopy tree mortality, as is indeed widely observed, and eventually neutralise carbon gains due to growth stimulation. Results from a strongly data-based forest simulator confirm these expectations. Extant Earth system model projections of global forest carbon sink persistence are likely too optimistic, increasing the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • R. J. W. Brienen & L. Caldwell & L. Duchesne & S. Voelker & J. Barichivich & M. Baliva & G. Ceccantini & A. Filippo & S. Helama & G. M. Locosselli & L. Lopez & G. Piovesan & J. Schöngart & R. Villalba, 2020. "Forest carbon sink neutralized by pervasive growth-lifespan trade-offs," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-17966-z
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-17966-z
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    Cited by:

    1. You Zhou & Jiyun She & Xiongmei Zhu, 2022. "Dynamic analysis of biodiversity, carbon storage and environmental factors of coniferous forest in Loudi City, Hunan Province [Structural complexity and large-sized trees explain shifting species r," International Journal of Low-Carbon Technologies, Oxford University Press, vol. 17, pages 831-840.
    2. Janko Arsić & Marko Stojanović & Lucia Petrovičová & Estelle Noyer & Slobodan Milanović & Jan Světlík & Petr Horáček & Jan Krejza, 2021. "Increased wood biomass growth is associated with lower wood density in Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl. saplings growing under elevated CO2," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(10), pages 1-20, October.
    3. Wernick, Iddo K. & Kauppi, Pekka E., 2022. "Storing carbon or growing forests?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).

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