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Three questions to ask before using model outputs for decision support

Author

Listed:
  • Volker Grimm

    (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Department of Ecological Modelling
    University of Potsdam, Institute for Biochemistry and Biology)

  • Alice S. A. Johnston

    (Cranfield University, School of Water, Energy and Environment)

  • H.-H. Thulke

    (Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Department of Ecological Modelling)

  • V. E. Forbes

    (University of Minnesota)

  • P. Thorbek

    (BASF SE, APD/EE)

Abstract

Decision makers must have sufficient confidence in models if they are to influence their decisions. We propose three screening questions to critically evaluate models with respect to their purpose, organization, and evidence. They enable a more transparent, robust, and secure use of model outputs.

Suggested Citation

  • Volker Grimm & Alice S. A. Johnston & H.-H. Thulke & V. E. Forbes & P. Thorbek, 2020. "Three questions to ask before using model outputs for decision support," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-3, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-17785-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-17785-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Will, Meike & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Lenel, Friederike & Frank, Karin & Müller, Birgit, 2023. "Determinants of Household Vulnerability in Networks with Formal Insurance and Informal Risk-Sharing," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    2. Drechsler, Martin & Wätzold, Frank & Grimm, Volker, 2022. "The hitchhiker's guide to generic ecological-economic modelling of land-use-based biodiversity conservation policies," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 465(C).
    3. Planque, Benjamin & Aarflot, Johanna M. & Buttay, Lucie & Carroll, JoLynn & Fransner, Filippa & Hansen, Cecilie & Husson, Bérengère & Langangen, Øystein & Lindstrøm, Ulf & Pedersen, Torstein & Primice, 2022. "A standard protocol for describing the evaluation of ecological models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 471(C).
    4. Gerling, Charlotte & Drechsler, Martin & Keuler, Klaus & Leins, Johannes A. & Radtke, Kai & Schulz, Björn & Sturm, Astrid & Wätzold, Frank, 2021. "Modelling the cost-effective spatio-temporal allocation of conservation measures in agricultural landscapes facing climate change," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242352, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Pierre, Jean-Sébastien, 2023. "Ecological forecasting models: Accuracy versus decisional quality," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 482(C).
    6. An, Li & Grimm, Volker & Sullivan, Abigail & Turner II, B.L. & Malleson, Nicolas & Heppenstall, Alison & Vincenot, Christian & Robinson, Derek & Ye, Xinyue & Liu, Jianguo & Lindkvist, Emilie & Tang, W, 2021. "Challenges, tasks, and opportunities in modeling agent-based complex systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 457(C).
    7. Gerling, Charlotte & Schöttker, Oliver & Hearne, John, 2022. "Irreversible and partly reversible investments in the optimal reserve design problem: the role of flexibility under climate change," MPRA Paper 112089, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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