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Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate

Author

Listed:
  • Megan Lickley

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Susan Solomon

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Sarah Fletcher

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Guus J. M. Velders

    (National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM))

  • John Daniel

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations)

  • Matthew Rigby

    (University of Bristol)

  • Stephen A. Montzka

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

  • Lambert J. M. Kuijpers

    (A/gent b.v. Consultancy)

  • Kane Stone

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) banks from uses such as air conditioners or foams can be emitted after global production stops. Recent reports of unexpected emissions of CFC-11 raise the need to better quantify releases from these banks, and associated impacts on ozone depletion and climate change. Here we develop a Bayesian probabilistic model for CFC-11, 12, and 113 banks and their emissions, incorporating the broadest range of constraints to date. We find that bank sizes of CFC-11 and CFC-12 are larger than recent international scientific assessments suggested, and can account for much of current estimated CFC-11 and 12 emissions (with the exception of increased CFC-11 emissions after 2012). Left unrecovered, these CFC banks could delay Antarctic ozone hole recovery by about six years and contribute 9 billion metric tonnes of equivalent CO2 emission. Derived CFC-113 emissions are subject to uncertainty, but are much larger than expected, raising questions about its sources.

Suggested Citation

  • Megan Lickley & Susan Solomon & Sarah Fletcher & Guus J. M. Velders & John Daniel & Matthew Rigby & Stephen A. Montzka & Lambert J. M. Kuijpers & Kane Stone, 2020. "Quantifying contributions of chlorofluorocarbon banks to emissions and impacts on the ozone layer and climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-15162-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15162-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Saudi‐Yulieth Enciso‐Alfaro & Isabel‐María García‐Sánchez, 2024. "Do boards care about planetary boundaries? A gender perspective on circular economy disclosures," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(5), pages 4562-4597, July.
    2. Gianluca Maracchini & Rocco Di Filippo & Rossano Albatici & Oreste S. Bursi & Rosa Di Maggio, 2023. "Sustainable Retrofit of Existing Buildings: Impact Assessment of Residual Fluorocarbons through Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-22, April.

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