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Impacts of Zika emergence in Latin America on endemic dengue transmission

Author

Listed:
  • Rebecca K. Borchering

    (University of Florida
    University of Georgia)

  • Angkana T. Huang

    (University of Florida)

  • Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero

    (Johns Hopkins University)

  • Diana P. Rojas

    (University of Florida)

  • Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer

    (University of California, San Francisco)

  • Leah C. Katzelnick

    (University of Florida)

  • Silvio D. Martinez

    (University of Florida)

  • Gregory D. King

    (University of Florida)

  • Stephanie C. Cinkovich

    (University of Florida)

  • Justin Lessler

    (Johns Hopkins University)

  • Derek A. T. Cummings

    (University of Florida)

Abstract

In 2015 and 2016, Zika virus (ZIKV) swept through dengue virus (DENV) endemic areas of Latin America. These viruses are of the same family, share a vector and may interact competitively or synergistically through human immune responses. We examine dengue incidence from Brazil and Colombia before, during, and after the Zika epidemic. We find evidence that dengue incidence was atypically low in 2017 in both countries. We investigate whether subnational Zika incidence is associated with changes in dengue incidence and find mixed results. Using simulations with multiple assumptions of interactions between DENV and ZIKV, we find cross-protection suppresses incidence of dengue following Zika outbreaks and low periods of dengue incidence are followed by resurgence. Our simulations suggest correlations in DENV and ZIKV reproduction numbers could complicate associations between ZIKV incidence and post-ZIKV DENV incidence and that periods of low dengue incidence are followed by large increases in dengue incidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Rebecca K. Borchering & Angkana T. Huang & Luis Mier-y-Teran-Romero & Diana P. Rojas & Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer & Leah C. Katzelnick & Silvio D. Martinez & Gregory D. King & Stephanie C. Cinkovich &, 2019. "Impacts of Zika emergence in Latin America on endemic dengue transmission," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-13628-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-13628-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Myriam Patricia Cifuentes & Clara Mercedes Suarez & Ricardo Cifuentes & Noel Malod-Dognin & Sam Windels & Jose Fernando Valderrama & Paul D. Juarez & R. Burciaga Valdez & Cynthia Colen & Charles Phill, 2022. "Big Data to Knowledge Analytics Reveals the Zika Virus Epidemic as Only One of Multiple Factors Contributing to a Year-Over-Year 28-Fold Increase in Microcephaly Incidence," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-21, July.
    2. Francesco Pinotti & Marta Giovanetti & Maricelia Maia Lima & Erenilde Marques Cerqueira & Luiz C. J. Alcantara & Sunetra Gupta & Mario Recker & José Lourenço, 2024. "Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.

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