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Quantifying operational lifetimes for coal power plants under the Paris goals

Author

Listed:
  • Ryna Yiyun Cui

    (University of Maryland
    5825 University Research Court)

  • Nathan Hultman

    (University of Maryland)

  • Morgan R. Edwards

    (University of Maryland)

  • Linlang He

    (University of Maryland)

  • Arijit Sen

    (University of Maryland)

  • Kavita Surana

    (University of Maryland)

  • Haewon McJeon

    (5825 University Research Court)

  • Gokul Iyer

    (5825 University Research Court)

  • Pralit Patel

    (5825 University Research Court)

  • Sha Yu

    (5825 University Research Court)

  • Ted Nace

    (Global Energy Monitor)

  • Christine Shearer

    (Global Energy Monitor)

Abstract

A rapid transition away from unabated coal use is essential to fulfilling the Paris climate goals. However, many countries are actively building and operating coal power plants. Here we use plant-level data to specify alternative trajectories for coal technologies in an integrated assessment model. We then quantify cost-effective retirement pathways for global and country-level coal fleets to limit long-term temperature change. We present our results using a decision-relevant metric: the operational lifetime limit. Even if no new plants are built, the lifetimes of existing units are reduced to approximately 35 years in a well-below 2 °C scenario or 20 years in a 1.5 °C scenario. The risk of continued coal expansion, including the near-term growth permitted in some Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), is large. The lifetime limits for both 2 °C and 1.5 °C are reduced by 5 years if plants under construction come online and 10 years if all proposed projects are built.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryna Yiyun Cui & Nathan Hultman & Morgan R. Edwards & Linlang He & Arijit Sen & Kavita Surana & Haewon McJeon & Gokul Iyer & Pralit Patel & Sha Yu & Ted Nace & Christine Shearer, 2019. "Quantifying operational lifetimes for coal power plants under the Paris goals," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-12618-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12618-3
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