IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v10y2019i1d10.1038_s41467-019-12479-w.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year

Author

Listed:
  • Callum J. Macgregor

    (University of York)

  • Chris D. Thomas

    (University of York)

  • David B. Roy

    (Crowmarsh Gifford)

  • Mark A. Beaumont

    (University of Bristol)

  • James R. Bell

    (West Common, Harpenden)

  • Tom Brereton

    (East Lulworth, Wareham)

  • Jon R. Bridle

    (University of Bristol)

  • Calvin Dytham

    (University of York)

  • Richard Fox

    (East Lulworth, Wareham)

  • Karl Gotthard

    (Stockholm University)

  • Ary A. Hoffmann

    (Bio21 Institute, University of Melbourne)

  • Geoff Martin

    (Natural History Museum)

  • Ian Middlebrook

    (East Lulworth, Wareham)

  • Sӧren Nylin

    (Stockholm University)

  • Philip J. Platts

    (University of York)

  • Rita Rasteiro

    (University of Bristol)

  • Ilik J. Saccheri

    (University of Liverpool)

  • Romain Villoutreix

    (University of Liverpool)

  • Christopher W. Wheat

    (Stockholm University)

  • Jane K. Hill

    (University of York)

Abstract

Advances in phenology (the annual timing of species’ life-cycles) in response to climate change are generally viewed as bioindicators of climate change, but have not been considered as predictors of range expansions. Here, we show that phenology advances combine with the number of reproductive cycles per year (voltinism) to shape abundance and distribution trends in 130 species of British Lepidoptera, in response to ~0.5 °C spring-temperature warming between 1995 and 2014. Early adult emergence in warm years resulted in increased within- and between-year population growth for species with multiple reproductive cycles per year (n = 39 multivoltine species). By contrast, early emergence had neutral or negative consequences for species with a single annual reproductive cycle (n = 91 univoltine species), depending on habitat specialisation. We conclude that phenology advances facilitate polewards range expansions in species exhibiting plasticity for both phenology and voltinism, but may inhibit expansion by less flexible species.

Suggested Citation

  • Callum J. Macgregor & Chris D. Thomas & David B. Roy & Mark A. Beaumont & James R. Bell & Tom Brereton & Jon R. Bridle & Calvin Dytham & Richard Fox & Karl Gotthard & Ary A. Hoffmann & Geoff Martin & , 2019. "Climate-induced phenology shifts linked to range expansions in species with multiple reproductive cycles per year," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-12479-w
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-12479-w
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-12479-w
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-019-12479-w?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alistair G. Auffret & Jens-Christian Svenning, 2022. "Climate warming has compounded plant responses to habitat conversion in northern Europe," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Liu, Yujie & Bachofen, Christoph & Wittwer, Raphaël & Silva Duarte, Gicele & Sun, Qing & Klaus, Valentin H. & Buchmann, Nina, 2022. "Using PhenoCams to track crop phenology and explain the effects of different cropping systems on yield," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-12479-w. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.