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Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Cooper

    (Princeton University
    Cambridge University)

  • Su Yun Kang

    (University of Oxford)

  • Donal Bisanzio

    (University of Oxford
    RTI International
    University of Nottingham)

  • Kilama Maxwell

    (Infectious Diseases Research Collaboration)

  • Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer

    (Johns Hopkins University
    University of California)

  • Bryan Greenhouse

    (University of California)

  • Chris Drakeley

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Emmanuel Arinaitwe

    (Infectious Diseases Research Collaboration
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Sarah Staedke

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Peter W. Gething

    (University of Oxford)

  • Philip Eckhoff

    (Institute for Disease Modeling)

  • Robert C. Reiner

    (University of Washington
    University of Washington)

  • Simon I. Hay

    (University of Washington
    University of Washington)

  • Grant Dorsey

    (University of California)

  • Moses R. Kamya

    (Makerere University College of Health Sciences)

  • Steven W. Lindsay

    (Durham University)

  • Bryan T. Grenfell

    (Princeton University
    Princeton University
    National Institutes of Health)

  • David L. Smith

    (University of Washington
    University of Washington)

Abstract

Heterogeneity in transmission is a challenge for infectious disease dynamics and control. An 80-20 “Pareto” rule has been proposed to describe this heterogeneity whereby 80% of transmission is accounted for by 20% of individuals, herein called super-spreaders. It is unclear, however, whether super-spreading can be attributed to certain individuals or whether it is an unpredictable and unavoidable feature of epidemics. Here, we investigate heterogeneous malaria transmission at three sites in Uganda and find that super-spreading is negatively correlated with overall malaria transmission intensity. Mosquito biting among humans is 90-10 at the lowest transmission intensities declining to less than 70-30 at the highest intensities. For super-spreaders, biting ranges from 70-30 down to 60-40. The difference, approximately half the total variance, is due to environmental stochasticity. Super-spreading is thus partly due to super-spreaders, but modest gains are expected from targeting super-spreaders.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Cooper & Su Yun Kang & Donal Bisanzio & Kilama Maxwell & Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer & Bryan Greenhouse & Chris Drakeley & Emmanuel Arinaitwe & Sarah Staedke & Peter W. Gething & Philip Eckhoff &, 2019. "Pareto rules for malaria super-spreaders and super-spreading," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-11861-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-11861-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Sean L Wu & Héctor M Sánchez C. & John M Henry & Daniel T Citron & Qian Zhang & Kelly Compton & Biyonka Liang & Amit Verma & Derek A T Cummings & Arnaud Le Menach & Thomas W Scott & Anne L Wilson & St, 2020. "Vector bionomics and vectorial capacity as emergent properties of mosquito behaviors and ecology," PLOS Computational Biology, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-32, April.

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