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Palaeodemographic modelling supports a population bottleneck during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition in Iberia

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  • Javier Fernández-López de Pablo

    (Institut Català de Paleoecología Humana i Evolució Social (IPHES), Edificio W3, Campus Sescelades URV, Zona Educacional 4
    Àrea de Prehistòria, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Avda. Catalunya 35)

  • Mario Gutiérrez-Roig

    (University of Warwick, Scarman Rd)

  • Madalena Gómez-Puche

    (Institut Català de Paleoecología Humana i Evolució Social (IPHES), Edificio W3, Campus Sescelades URV, Zona Educacional 4
    Àrea de Prehistòria, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Avda. Catalunya 35)

  • Rowan McLaughlin

    (Institut Català de Paleoecología Humana i Evolució Social (IPHES), Edificio W3, Campus Sescelades URV, Zona Educacional 4
    Àrea de Prehistòria, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Avda. Catalunya 35)

  • Fabio Silva

    (Bournemouth University, Fern Barrow, Poole)

  • Sergi Lozano

    (Institut Català de Paleoecología Humana i Evolució Social (IPHES), Edificio W3, Campus Sescelades URV, Zona Educacional 4
    Àrea de Prehistòria, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Avda. Catalunya 35)

Abstract

Demographic change lies at the core of debates on genetic inheritance and resilience to climate change of prehistoric hunter-gatherers. Here we analyze the radiocarbon record of Iberia to reconstruct long-term changes in population levels and test different models of demographic growth during the Last Glacial-Interglacial transition. Our best fitting demographic model is composed of three phases. First, we document a regime of exponential population increase during the Late Glacial warming period (c.16.6-12.9 kya). Second, we identify a phase of sustained population contraction and stagnation, beginning with the cold episode of the Younger Dryas and continuing through the first half of the Early Holocene (12.9-10.2 kya). Finally, we report a third phase of density-dependent logistic growth (10.2-8 kya), with rapid population increase followed by stabilization. Our results support a population bottleneck hypothesis during the Last Glacial-Interglacial transition, providing a demographic context to interpret major shifts of prehistoric genetic groups in south-west Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Javier Fernández-López de Pablo & Mario Gutiérrez-Roig & Madalena Gómez-Puche & Rowan McLaughlin & Fabio Silva & Sergi Lozano, 2019. "Palaeodemographic modelling supports a population bottleneck during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition in Iberia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-09833-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09833-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Enrico R Crema & Shinya Shoda, 2021. "A Bayesian approach for fitting and comparing demographic growth models of radiocarbon dates: A case study on the Jomon-Yayoi transition in Kyushu (Japan)," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(5), pages 1-26, May.
    2. Alejandro Ordonez & Felix Riede, 2022. "Changes in limiting factors for forager population dynamics in Europe across the last glacial-interglacial transition," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.

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