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The future of Southeast Asia’s forests

Author

Listed:
  • Ronald C. Estoque

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Makoto Ooba

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Valerio Avitabile

    (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC))

  • Yasuaki Hijioka

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Rajarshi DasGupta

    (Institute for Global Environmental Strategies)

  • Takuya Togawa

    (National Institute for Environmental Studies)

  • Yuji Murayama

    (University of Tsukuba)

Abstract

While Southeast Asia’s forests play important roles in biodiversity conservation and global carbon (C) balance, the region is also a deforestation hotspot. Here, we consider the five shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to portray a range of plausible futures for the region’s forests, employing a state-of-the-art land change modelling procedure and remotely sensed data. We find that by 2050 under the worst-case scenario, SSP 3 (regional rivalry/a rocky road), the region’s forests would shrink by 5.2 million ha. The region’s aboveground forest carbon stock (AFCS) would decrease by 790 Tg C, 21% of which would be due to old-growth forest loss. Conversely, under the best-case scenario, SSP 1 (sustainability/taking the green road), the region is projected to gain 19.6 million ha of forests and 1651 Tg C of AFCS. The choice of the pathway is thus critical for the future of the region’s forests and their ecosystem functions and services.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald C. Estoque & Makoto Ooba & Valerio Avitabile & Yasuaki Hijioka & Rajarshi DasGupta & Takuya Togawa & Yuji Murayama, 2019. "The future of Southeast Asia’s forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:10:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-019-09646-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09646-4
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    Cited by:

    1. Linghua Qiu & Junhao He & Chao Yue & Philippe Ciais & Chunmiao Zheng, 2024. "Substantial terrestrial carbon emissions from global expansion of impervious surface area," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.

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