Sublimation of terrestrial permafrost and the implications for ice-loss processes on Mars

Sublimation of ice is rate-controlled by vapor transport away from its outer surface and may have generated landforms on Mars. In ice-cemented ground (permafrost), the lag of soil particles remaining after ice loss decreases subsequent sublimation. Varying soil-ice ratios lead to differential lag development. Here we report 52 years of sublimation measurements from a permafrost tunnel near Fairbanks, Alaska, and constrain models of sublimation, diffusion through porous soil, and lag formation. We derive the first long-term in situ effective diffusion coefficient of ice-free loess, a Mars analog soil, of 9.05 × 10−6 m2 s−1, ~5× larger than past theoretical studies. Exposed ice-wedge sublimation proceeds ~4× faster than predicted from analogy to heat loss by buoyant convection, a theory frequently employed in Mars studies. Our results can be used to map near-surface ice-content differences, identify surface processes controlling landform formation and morphology, and identify target landing sites for human exploration of Mars.