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Changing access to ice, land and water in Arctic communities

Author

Listed:
  • J. D. Ford

    (University of Leeds
    McGill University)

  • D. Clark

    (McGill University)

  • T. Pearce

    (University of the Sunshine Coast)

  • L. Berrang-Ford

    (University of Leeds)

  • L. Copland

    (University of Ottawa)

  • J. Dawson

    (University of Ottawa)

  • M. New

    (University of Cape Town
    University of East Anglia)

  • S. L Harper

    (University of Alberta)

Abstract

Arctic climate change has the potential to affect access to semi-permanent trails on land, water and sea ice, which are the main forms of transport for communities in many circumpolar regions. Focusing on Inuit Nunangat (the Inuit homeland in northern Canada), trail access models were developed drawing upon a participatory process that connects Indigenous knowledge and science. We identified general thresholds for weather and sea ice variables that define boundaries that determine trail access, then applied these thresholds to instrumental data on weather and sea ice conditions to model daily trail accessibility from 1985 to 2016 for 16 communities. We find that overall trail access has been minimally affected by >2 °C warming in the past three decades, increasing by 1.38–1.96 days, differing by trail type. Across models, the knowledge, equipment and risk tolerance of trail users were substantially more influential in determining trail access than changing climatic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • J. D. Ford & D. Clark & T. Pearce & L. Berrang-Ford & L. Copland & J. Dawson & M. New & S. L Harper, 2019. "Changing access to ice, land and water in Arctic communities," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(4), pages 335-339, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:4:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0435-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0435-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Shijin Wang, 2024. "Opportunities and threats of cryosphere change to the achievement of UN 2030 SDGs," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Katy Davis & James D. Ford & Claire H. Quinn & Anuszka Mosurska & Melanie Flynn & IHACC Research Team & Sherilee L. Harper, 2022. "Shifting Safeties and Mobilities on the Land in Arctic North America: A Systematic Approach to Identifying the Root Causes of Disaster," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-23, June.
    3. Nathan S. Debortoli & Tristan D. Pearce & James D. Ford, 2023. "Estimating Future Costs for Infrastructure in the Proposed Canadian Northern Corridor at Risk From Climate Change," SPP Research Papers, The School of Public Policy, University of Calgary, vol. 16(6), March.
    4. Tom Spencer & Alexandre K. Magnan & Simon Donner & Matthias Garschagen & James Ford & Virginie K. E. Duvat & Colette C. C. Wabnitz, 2024. "Habitability of low-lying socio-ecological systems under a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-19, January.

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