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Achievement of Paris climate goals unlikely due to time lags in the land system

Author

Listed:
  • Calum Brown

    (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)

  • Peter Alexander

    (University of Edinburgh
    University of Edinburgh)

  • Almut Arneth

    (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology)

  • Ian Holman

    (Cranfield University)

  • Mark Rounsevell

    (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
    University of Edinburgh)

Abstract

Achieving the Paris Agreement’s aim of limiting average global temperature increases to 1.5 °C requires substantial changes in the land system. However, individual countries’ plans to accomplish these changes remain vague, almost certainly insufficient and unlikely to be implemented in full. These shortcomings are partially the result of avoidable ‘blind spots’ relating to time lags inherent in the implementation of land-based mitigation strategies. Key blind spots include inconsistencies between different land-system policies, spatial and temporal lags in land-system change, and detrimental consequences of some mitigation options. We suggest that improved recognition of these processes is necessary to identify achievable mitigation actions, avoiding excessively optimistic assumptions and consequent policy failures.

Suggested Citation

  • Calum Brown & Peter Alexander & Almut Arneth & Ian Holman & Mark Rounsevell, 2019. "Achievement of Paris climate goals unlikely due to time lags in the land system," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(3), pages 203-208, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0400-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0400-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Kowalczyk, Cezary & Źróbek-Różańska, Alina & Źróbek, Sabina & Kryszk, Hubert, 2021. "How does government legal intervention affect the process of transformation of state-owned agricultural land? The research methods and their practical application," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    2. Xin Zhao & Bryan K. Mignone & Marshall A. Wise & Haewon C. McJeon, 2024. "Trade-offs in land-based carbon removal measures under 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Changchang Liu & Chuxiong Deng & Zhongwu Li & Yaojun Liu & Shuyuan Wang, 2022. "Optimization of Spatial Pattern of Land Use: Progress, Frontiers, and Prospects," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-22, May.
    4. Yi Yang & Beibei Liu & Peng Wang & Wei‐Qiang Chen & Timothy M. Smith, 2020. "Toward sustainable climate change adaptation," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 24(2), pages 318-330, April.
    5. Yan, Pu & Xiao, Chunwang & Xu, Li & Yu, Guirui & Li, Ang & Piao, Shilong & He, Nianpeng, 2020. "Biomass energy in China's terrestrial ecosystems: Insights into the nation's sustainable energy supply," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    6. Tørstad, Vegard & Wiborg, Vegard, 2023. "Commitment Ambiguity and Ambition in Climate Pledges," Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Working Paper Series qt7gd693zp, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California.
    7. Masoud Ahmadinia & Seyed M. Shariatipour, 2021. "A study on the impact of storage boundary and caprock morphology on carbon sequestration in saline aquifers," Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(1), pages 183-205, February.
    8. Alina Źróbek-Różańska & Joanna Zielińska-Szczepkowska, 2019. "National Land Use Policy against the Misuse of the Agricultural Land—Causes and Effects. Evidence from Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-18, November.

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