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The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models

Author

Listed:
  • Flavio Lehner

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research
    National Center for Atmospheric Research
    Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich)

  • Andrew W. Wood

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Julie A. Vano

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research
    Aspen Global Change Institute)

  • David M. Lawrence

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research)

  • Martyn P. Clark

    (University of Saskatchewan)

  • Justin S. Mankin

    (Dartmouth College
    Dartmouth College
    Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University)

Abstract

Increasingly, climate change impact assessments rely directly on climate models. Assessments of future water security depend in part on how the land model components in climate models partition precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff, and on the sensitivity of this partitioning to climate. Runoff sensitivities are not well constrained, with CMIP5 models displaying a large spread for the present day, which projects onto change under warming, creating uncertainty. Here we show that constraining CMIP5 model runoff sensitivities with observed estimates could reduce uncertainty in runoff projection over the western United States by up to 50%. We urge caution in the direct use of climate model runoff for applications and encourage model development to use regional-scale hydrological sensitivity metrics to improve projections for water security assessments.

Suggested Citation

  • Flavio Lehner & Andrew W. Wood & Julie A. Vano & David M. Lawrence & Martyn P. Clark & Justin S. Mankin, 2019. "The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(12), pages 926-933, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0639-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0639-x
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    Cited by:

    1. E. Pastén-Zapata & T. Eberhart & K. H. Jensen & J. C. Refsgaard & T. O. Sonnenborg, 2022. "Towards a More Robust Evaluation of Climate Model and Hydrological Impact Uncertainties," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(10), pages 3545-3560, August.

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