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The development of partisan polarization over the Green New Deal

Author

Listed:
  • Abel Gustafson

    (Yale University)

  • Seth A. Rosenthal

    (Yale University)

  • Matthew T. Ballew

    (Yale University)

  • Matthew H. Goldberg

    (Yale University)

  • Parrish Bergquist

    (Yale University)

  • John E. Kotcher

    (George Mason University)

  • Edward W. Maibach

    (George Mason University)

  • Anthony Leiserowitz

    (Yale University)

Abstract

In early 2019, a US climate change and economic renewal policy proposal called the Green New Deal (GND)1 rose from obscurity to national prominence in just four months. This situation created a natural field experiment in which to study the emergence of partisan polarization. Here, we report findings from two nationally representative surveys of registered US voters that measured familiarity with and support for the GND shortly before and after the issue entered the national spotlight. Initially, there was low public awareness of the GND but majority support for it across party lines. Four months later, voters had become much more familiar with the GND and partisan polarization had increased significantly due to a sharp decrease in support among Republicans. In fact, Republicans who had heard the most about the GND were the least likely to support it. In contrast, support for the GND remained high among Democrats, and did not vary substantially across degrees of familiarity. We also identify a likely mechanism: a ‘Fox News effect’. That is, among Republicans, Fox News viewing was a significant predictor of both familiarity with the GND and opposition to it, even when controlling for alternative explanations.

Suggested Citation

  • Abel Gustafson & Seth A. Rosenthal & Matthew T. Ballew & Matthew H. Goldberg & Parrish Bergquist & John E. Kotcher & Edward W. Maibach & Anthony Leiserowitz, 2019. "The development of partisan polarization over the Green New Deal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(12), pages 940-944, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0621-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0621-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Sibel Eker & Charlie Wilson & Niklas Hohne & Mark S. McCaffrey & Irene Monasterolo & Leila Niamir & Caroline Zimm, 2023. "A dynamic systems approach to harness the potential of social tipping," Papers 2309.14964, arXiv.org.
    2. Giorgos Galanis & Giorgio Ricchiuti & Ben Tippet, 2022. "The Global Political Economy of a Green Transition," Working Papers - Economics wp2022_22.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    3. Matthew H. Goldberg & Abel Gustafson & Matthew T. Ballew & Seth A. Rosenthal & Matthew J. Cutler & Anthony Leiserowitz, 2020. "Predictors of global warming risk perceptions among Latino and non-Latino White Americans," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1555-1574, October.
    4. Melissa K. Merry & Rodger A. Payne, 2024. "Climate fatalism, partisan cues, and support for the Inflation Reduction Act," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 57(2), pages 379-402, June.
    5. Brown, Donal & Brisbois, Marie-Claire & Lacey-Barnacle, Max & Foxon, Tim & Copeland, Claire & Mininni, Giulia, 2023. "The Green New Deal: Historical insights and local prospects in the United Kingdom (UK)," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    6. Matthew T. Ballew & Jennifer R. Marlon & Matthew H. Goldberg & Edward W. Maibach & Seth A. Rosenthal & Emily Aiken & Anthony Leiserowitz, 2022. "Changing minds about global warming: vicarious experience predicts self-reported opinion change in the USA," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-25, August.
    7. Fang, Ximeng & Innocenti, Stefania, 2023. "Increasing the acceptability of carbon taxation: The role of social norms and economic reasoning," INET Oxford Working Papers 2023-25, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    8. Salil Benegal & Mirya R. Holman, 2021. "Understanding the importance of sexism in shaping climate denial and policy opposition," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(3), pages 1-19, August.
    9. Dylan Bugden, 2022. "Denial and distrust: explaining the partisan climate gap," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-23, February.
    10. Lee, Boreum & Lim, Dongjun & Lee, Hyunjun & Lim, Hankwon, 2021. "Which water electrolysis technology is appropriate?: Critical insights of potential water electrolysis for green ammonia production," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    11. Clarke, Christopher E. & Evensen, Darrick T.N., 2023. "Attention to news media coverage of unconventional oil/gas development impacts: Exploring psychological antecedents and effects on issue support," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).

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