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Climatic and socioeconomic controls of future coastal flood risk in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Michalis I. Vousdoukas

    (Joint European Research Centre (JRC)
    University of the Aegean)

  • Lorenzo Mentaschi

    (Joint European Research Centre (JRC))

  • Evangelos Voukouvalas

    (Engineering Ingegneria Informatica S.p.A.)

  • Alessandra Bianchi

    (Arcadia SIT)

  • Francesco Dottori

    (Joint European Research Centre (JRC))

  • Luc Feyen

    (Joint European Research Centre (JRC))

Abstract

Rising extreme sea levels (ESLs) and continued socioeconomic development in coastal zones will lead to increasing future flood risk along the European coastline. We present a comprehensive analysis of future coastal flood risk (CFR) for Europe that separates the impacts of global warming and socioeconomic development. In the absence of further investments in coastal adaptation, the present expected annual damage (EAD) of €1.25 billion is projected to increase by two to three orders of magnitude by the end of the century, ranging between 93 and €961 billion. The current expected annual number of people exposed (EAPE) to coastal flooding of 102,000 is projected to reach 1.52–3.65 million by the end of the century. Climate change is the main driver of the future rise in coastal flood losses, with the importance of coastward migration, urbanization and rising asset values rapidly declining with time. To keep future coastal flood losses constant relative to the size of the economy, flood defence structures need to be installed or reinforced to withstand increases in ESLs that range from 0.5 to 2.5 m.

Suggested Citation

  • Michalis I. Vousdoukas & Lorenzo Mentaschi & Evangelos Voukouvalas & Alessandra Bianchi & Francesco Dottori & Luc Feyen, 2018. "Climatic and socioeconomic controls of future coastal flood risk in Europe," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(9), pages 776-780, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0260-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0260-4
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Bachner & Daniel Lincke & Jochen Hinkel, 2022. "The macroeconomic effects of adapting to high-end sea-level rise via protection and migration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    2. Andrew Russell & Paul Sayers, 2022. "Assessing Future Flood Risk and Developing Integrated Flood Risk Management Strategies: A Case Study from the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-14, October.
    3. Mahdi Bitarafan & Kambod Amini Hosseini & Sarfaraz Hashemkhani Zolfani, 2023. "Evaluating Natural Hazards in Cities Using a Novel Integrated MCDM Approach (Case Study: Tehran City)," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, April.
    4. Lilai Xu & Shengping Ding & Vilas Nitivattananon & Jianxiong Tang, 2021. "Long-Term Dynamic of Land Reclamation and Its Impact on Coastal Flooding: A Case Study in Xiamen, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-18, August.
    5. P. Subraelu & Abdel Azim Ebraheem & Mohsen Sherif & Ahmed Sefelnasr & M. M. Yagoub & Kakani Nageswara Rao, 2022. "Land in Water: The Study of Land Reclamation and Artificial Islands Formation in the UAE Coastal Zone: A Remote Sensing and GIS Perspective," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-28, November.
    6. Vincent T. M. Zelst & Jasper T. Dijkstra & Bregje K. Wesenbeeck & Dirk Eilander & Edward P. Morris & Hessel C. Winsemius & Philip J. Ward & Mindert B. Vries, 2021. "Cutting the costs of coastal protection by integrating vegetation in flood defences," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Meri Davlasheridze & Qin Fan & Wesley Highfield & Jiaochen Liang, 2021. "Economic impacts of storm surge events: examining state and national ripple effects," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 166(1), pages 1-20, May.
    8. Weibin Lin & Yimin Sun & Steffen Nijhuis, 2024. "Comparison of Compact and Decentralized Urban Development Pathways for Flood Mitigation in Urbanizing Deltas—Guangzhou in the Pearl River Delta as a Case Study," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-22, March.
    9. Theodoros Chatzivasileiadis & Ignasi Cortes Arbues & Daniel Lincke & Jochen Hinkel & Theodoros Chatzivasileiadis & Richard S.J. Tol, "undated". "Actualised and future changes in regional economic growth through sea level rise," Working Paper Series 0324, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    10. Jan-Ludolf Merkens & Athanasios T. Vafeidis, 2018. "Using Information on Settlement Patterns to Improve the Spatial Distribution of Population in Coastal Impact Assessments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-19, September.
    11. Max Tesselaar & W. J. Wouter Botzen & Timothy Tiggeloven & Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, 2023. "Flood insurance is a driver of population growth in European floodplains," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    12. Michalis I. Vousdoukas & Panagiotis Athanasiou & Alessio Giardino & Lorenzo Mentaschi & Alessandro Stocchino & Robert E. Kopp & Pelayo Menéndez & Michael W. Beck & Roshanka Ranasinghe & Luc Feyen, 2023. "Small Island Developing States under threat by rising seas even in a 1.5 °C warming world," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(12), pages 1552-1564, December.

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