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Re-examining tropical expansion

Author

Listed:
  • Paul W. Staten

    (Indiana University Bloomington)

  • Jian Lu

    (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory)

  • Kevin M. Grise

    (University of Virginia)

  • Sean M. Davis

    (NOAA ESRL Chemical Sciences Division
    University of Colorado at Boulder)

  • Thomas Birner

    (Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich)

Abstract

Observations reveal a poleward expansion of the tropics in recent decades, implying a potential role of human activity. However, although theory and modelling suggest increasing GHG concentrations should widen the tropics, previous observational-based studies depict disparate rates of expansion, including many that are far higher than those simulated by climate models. Here, we review the rates and possible causes of observed and projected tropical widening. By accounting for methodological differences, the tropics are found to have widened about 0.5° of latitude per decade since 1979. However, it is too early to detect robust anthropogenically induced widening imprints due to large internal variability. Future work should target the seasonal and regional signatures of forced widening, as well as the associated dynamical mechanisms.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul W. Staten & Jian Lu & Kevin M. Grise & Sean M. Davis & Thomas Birner, 2018. "Re-examining tropical expansion," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(9), pages 768-775, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:9:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0246-2
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0246-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Tulet & Bertrand Aunay & Guilhem Barruol & Christelle Barthe & Remi Belon & Soline Bielli & François Bonnardot & Olivier Bousquet & Jean-Pierre Cammas & Julien Cattiaux & Fabrice Chauvin & Idri, 2021. "ReNovRisk: a multidisciplinary programme to study the cyclonic risks in the South-West Indian Ocean," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(2), pages 1191-1223, June.
    2. D. Carvalho & S. C. Pereira & R. Silva & A. Rocha, 2022. "Aridity and desertification in the Mediterranean under EURO-CORDEX future climate change scenarios," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-24, October.

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