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Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel L. Swain

    (University of California, Los Angeles
    The Nature Conservancy)

  • Baird Langenbrunner

    (University of California, Los Angeles
    University of California, Irvine)

  • J. David Neelin

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

  • Alex Hall

    (University of California, Los Angeles)

Abstract

Mediterranean climate regimes are particularly susceptible to rapid shifts between drought and flood—of which, California’s rapid transition from record multi-year dryness between 2012 and 2016 to extreme wetness during the 2016–2017 winter provides a dramatic example. Projected future changes in such dry-to-wet events, however, remain inadequately quantified, which we investigate here using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble of climate model simulations. Anthropogenic forcing is found to yield large twenty-first-century increases in the frequency of wet extremes, including a more than threefold increase in sub-seasonal events comparable to California’s ‘Great Flood of 1862’. Smaller but statistically robust increases in dry extremes are also apparent. As a consequence, a 25% to 100% increase in extreme dry-to-wet precipitation events is projected, despite only modest changes in mean precipitation. Such hydrological cycle intensification would seriously challenge California’s existing water storage, conveyance and flood control infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel L. Swain & Baird Langenbrunner & J. David Neelin & Alex Hall, 2018. "Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-first-century California," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(5), pages 427-433, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0140-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0140-y
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