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Future equivalent of 2010 Russian heatwave intensified by weakening soil moisture constraints

Author

Listed:
  • L. M. Rasmijn

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • G. Schrier

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • R. Bintanja

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
    University of Groningen)

  • J. Barkmeijer

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • A. Sterl

    (Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI))

  • W. Hazeleger

    (Wageningen University
    Netherlands eScience Center)

Abstract

The 2010 heatwave in eastern Europe and Russia ranks among the hottest events ever recorded in the region1,2. The excessive summer warmth was related to an anomalously widespread and intense quasi-stationary anticyclonic circulation anomaly over western Russia, reinforced by depletion of spring soil moisture1,3–5. At present, high soil moisture levels and strong surface evaporation generally tend to cap maximum summer temperatures6–8, but these constraints may weaken under future warming9,10. Here, we use a data assimilation technique in which future climate model simulations are nudged to realistically represent the persistence and strength of the 2010 blocked atmospheric flow. In the future, synoptically driven extreme warming under favourable large-scale atmospheric conditions will no longer be suppressed by abundant soil moisture, leading to a disproportional intensification of future heatwaves. This implies that future mid-latitude heatwaves analogous to the 2010 event will become even more extreme than previously thought, with temperature extremes increasing by 8.4 °C over western Russia. Thus, the socioeconomic impacts of future heatwaves will probably be amplified beyond current estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • L. M. Rasmijn & G. Schrier & R. Bintanja & J. Barkmeijer & A. Sterl & W. Hazeleger, 2018. "Future equivalent of 2010 Russian heatwave intensified by weakening soil moisture constraints," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(5), pages 381-385, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:5:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0114-0
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0114-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Yuqing Zhang & Guangxiong Mao & Changchun Chen & Liucheng Shen & Binyu Xiao, 2021. "Population Exposure to Compound Droughts and Heatwaves in the Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis Data in the Gan River Basin, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-28, September.
    2. G. Schrier & L. M. Rasmijn & J. Barkmeijer & A. Sterl & W. Hazeleger, 2018. "The 2010 Pakistan floods in a future climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 148(1), pages 205-218, May.

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