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Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew P. Schurer

    (School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Crew Building)

  • Michael E. Mann

    (Pennsylvania State University, State College)

  • Ed Hawkins

    (NCAS-Climate, University of Reading)

  • Simon F. B. Tett

    (School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Crew Building)

  • Gabriele C. Hegerl

    (School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Crew Building)

Abstract

In order to meet internationally agreed temperature limits, it is important to have a defined baseline. This study shows for low-emission scenarios the likelihood and timing of exceedance are highly dependent on the baseline, as are allowable carbon emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew P. Schurer & Michael E. Mann & Ed Hawkins & Simon F. B. Tett & Gabriele C. Hegerl, 2017. "Importance of the pre-industrial baseline for likelihood of exceeding Paris goals," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(8), pages 563-567, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:7:y:2017:i:8:d:10.1038_nclimate3345
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3345
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    Cited by:

    1. Ameur, Hachmi Ben & Han, Xuyuan & Liu, Zhenya & Peillex, Jonathan, 2022. "When did global warming start? A new baseline for carbon budgeting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    2. Felix Ekardt & Jutta Wieding & Anika Zorn, 2018. "Paris Agreement, Precautionary Principle and Human Rights: Zero Emissions in Two Decades?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-15, August.
    3. Itiki, Rodney & Manjrekar, Madhav & Di Santo, Silvio Giuseppe & Machado, Luis Fernando M., 2020. "Technical feasibility of Japan-Taiwan-Philippines HVdc interconnector to the Asia Pacific Super Grid," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Cheng, Hao & Wu, Boyu & Jiang, Xiaokun, 2024. "Study on the spatial network structure of energy carbon emission efficiency and its driving factors in Chinese cities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 371(C).
    5. Wang, Jianda & Dong, Kangyin & Hochman, Gal & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2023. "Factors driving aggregate service sector energy intensities in Asia and Eastern Europe: A LMDI analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    6. Heidi K. Edmonds & Julie E. Lovell & C. A. Knox Lovell, 2017. "A New Composite Index for Greenhouse Gases: Climate Science Meets Social Science," Resources, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-16, October.

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