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Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend

Author

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  • Jianbin Huang

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
    Joint Center for Global Change Studies)

  • Xiangdong Zhang

    (International Arctic Research Center and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks)

  • Qiyi Zhang

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
    Joint Center for Global Change Studies)

  • Yanluan Lin

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
    Joint Center for Global Change Studies)

  • Mingju Hao

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
    Joint Center for Global Change Studies)

  • Yong Luo

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
    Joint Center for Global Change Studies
    State Key Laboratory of Cryosphere Science, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Zongci Zhao

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
    Joint Center for Global Change Studies)

  • Yao Yao

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
    Joint Center for Global Change Studies)

  • Xin Chen

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
    Joint Center for Global Change Studies)

  • Lei Wang

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
    Joint Center for Global Change Studies)

  • Suping Nie

    (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration)

  • Yizhou Yin

    (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration)

  • Ying Xu

    (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration)

  • Jiansong Zhang

    (Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University
    Joint Center for Global Change Studies)

Abstract

The existence and magnitude of the recently suggested global warming hiatus, or slowdown, have been strongly debated1–3. Although various physical processes4–8 have been examined to elucidate this phenomenon, the accuracy and completeness of observational data that comprise global average surface air temperature (SAT) datasets is a concern9,10. In particular, these datasets lack either complete geographic coverage or in situ observations over the Arctic, owing to the sparse observational network in this area 9 . As a consequence, the contribution of Arctic warming to global SAT changes may have been underestimated, leading to an uncertainty in the hiatus debate. Here, we constructed a new Arctic SAT dataset using the most recently updated global SATs 2 and a drifting buoys based Arctic SAT dataset 11 through employing the ‘data interpolating empirical orthogonal functions’ method 12 . Our estimate of global SAT rate of increase is around 0.112 °C per decade, instead of 0.05 °C per decade from IPCC AR5 1 , for 1998–2012. Analysis of this dataset shows that the amplified Arctic warming over the past decade has significantly contributed to a continual global warming trend, rather than a hiatus or slowdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianbin Huang & Xiangdong Zhang & Qiyi Zhang & Yanluan Lin & Mingju Hao & Yong Luo & Zongci Zhao & Yao Yao & Xin Chen & Lei Wang & Suping Nie & Yizhou Yin & Ying Xu & Jiansong Zhang, 2017. "Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(12), pages 875-879, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:7:y:2017:i:12:d:10.1038_s41558-017-0009-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-017-0009-5
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Miao Fang & Xin Li & Hans W. Chen & Deliang Chen, 2022. "Arctic amplification modulated by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and greenhouse forcing on multidecadal to century scales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Jens Strauss & Christina Biasi & Tina Sanders & Benjamin W. Abbott & Thomas Schneider Deimling & Carolina Voigt & Matthias Winkel & Maija E. Marushchak & Dan Kou & Matthias Fuchs & Marcus A. Horn & Lo, 2022. "A globally relevant stock of soil nitrogen in the Yedoma permafrost domain," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. JiHyun Kim & Yeonjoo Kim & Donatella Zona & Walter Oechel & Sang-Jong Park & Bang-Yong Lee & Yonghong Yi & Angela Erb & Crystal L. Schaaf, 2021. "Carbon response of tundra ecosystems to advancing greenup and snowmelt in Alaska," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Zofia Stachowska & Willem G. M. Bilt & Mateusz C. Strzelecki, 2024. "Coastal lake sediments from Arctic Svalbard suggest colder summers are stormier," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    5. Huang, Ze & Dunkerley, David & López‐Vicente, Manuel & Wu, Gao-Lin, 2020. "Trade-offs of dryland forage production and soil water consumption in a semi-arid area," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    6. Jon Rosales & Carol Cady & Glenn Juday & Claire Alix & Miho Morimoto & Jessica Chapman & Dakota Casserly & Sophia Katchatag, 2021. "Storm surge proxies in a data-poor landscape: a practical monitoring method for under-surveyed and -studied communities vulnerable to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 1-17, January.
    7. M. E. Marushchak & J. Kerttula & K. Diáková & A. Faguet & J. Gil & G. Grosse & C. Knoblauch & N. Lashchinskiy & P. J. Martikainen & A. Morgenstern & M. Nykamb & J. G. Ronkainen & H. M. P. Siljanen & L, 2021. "Thawing Yedoma permafrost is a neglected nitrous oxide source," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.

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