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Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick T. Brown

    (Carnegie Institution for Science)

  • Yi Ming

    (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA)

  • Wenhong Li

    (Earth and Ocean Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University)

  • Spencer A. Hill

    (University of California
    California Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the climate warms. Here we present modelling evidence that indicates that the magnitude of low-frequency GMST variability is likely to decline in a warmer climate and that its generating mechanisms may be fundamentally altered. In particular, a warmer climate results in lower albedo at high latitudes, which yields a weaker albedo feedback on unforced GMST variability. These results imply that unforced GMST variability is dependent on the background climatological conditions, and thus climate model control simulations run under perpetual pre-industrial conditions may have only limited relevance for understanding the unforced GMST variability of the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick T. Brown & Yi Ming & Wenhong Li & Spencer A. Hill, 2017. "Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(10), pages 743-748, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:7:y:2017:i:10:d:10.1038_nclimate3381
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3381
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    Cited by:

    1. Dirk Olonscheck & Andrew P. Schurer & Lucie Lücke & Gabriele C. Hegerl, 2021. "Large-scale emergence of regional changes in year-to-year temperature variability by the end of the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. Haimei Duan & Chunxue Shang & Kun Yang & Yi Luo, 2022. "Dynamic Response of Surface Water Temperature in Urban Lakes under Different Climate Scenarios—A Case Study in Dianchi Lake, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-11, September.
    3. Zhaoqi Wang & Zhiyuan Lu & Guolong Cui, 2020. "Spatiotemporal Variation of Land Surface Temperature and Vegetation in Response to Climate Change Based on NOAA-AVHRR Data over China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-16, April.

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