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Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation

Author

Listed:
  • Beena Balan Sarojini

    (National Centre for Atmospheric Science — Climate Directorate
    University of Reading
    Walker Institute, University of Reading
    University of Reading)

  • Peter A. Stott

    (Met Office Hadley Centre
    Department of Mathematics)

  • Emily Black

    (National Centre for Atmospheric Science — Climate Directorate
    University of Reading
    Walker Institute, University of Reading)

Abstract

Understanding how human influence on the climate is affecting precipitation around the world is immensely important for defining mitigation policies, and for adaptation planning. Yet despite increasing evidence for the influence of climate change on global patterns of precipitation, and expectations that significant changes in regional precipitation should have already occurred as a result of human influence on climate, compelling evidence of anthropogenic fingerprints on regional precipitation is obscured by observational and modelling uncertainties; and by using current methods, it is likely to remain so for years to come. This is in spite of substantial ongoing improvements in models, new reanalyses and a satellite record that spans over thirty years. If we are to quantify how human-induced climate change is affecting the regional water cycle, we need to consider new ways of identifying the effects of natural and anthropogenic influences on precipitation that take full advantage of our physical expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Beena Balan Sarojini & Peter A. Stott & Emily Black, 2016. "Detection and attribution of human influence on regional precipitation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(7), pages 669-675, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:6:y:2016:i:7:d:10.1038_nclimate2976
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2976
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