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Contribution of natural decadal variability to global warming acceleration and hiatus

Author

Listed:
  • Masahiro Watanabe

    (Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa Chiba 277-8568, Japan)

  • Hideo Shiogama

    (Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan)

  • Hiroaki Tatebe

    (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan)

  • Michiya Hayashi

    (Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa Chiba 277-8568, Japan)

  • Masayoshi Ishii

    (Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan)

  • Masahide Kimoto

    (Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, the University of Tokyo, 5-1-5 Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa Chiba 277-8568, Japan)

Abstract

The role of natural decadal variability in the global warming slowdown has been hinted at, but not quantified. This study looks at decadal average surface temperature anomalies for the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. The results show that decadal variability is a large contributor to temperature trends, but its influence has decreased, from 47% in the 1980s to 27% in the 2000s, as anthropogenic warming has increased.

Suggested Citation

  • Masahiro Watanabe & Hideo Shiogama & Hiroaki Tatebe & Michiya Hayashi & Masayoshi Ishii & Masahide Kimoto, 2014. "Contribution of natural decadal variability to global warming acceleration and hiatus," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(10), pages 893-897, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:4:y:2014:i:10:d:10.1038_nclimate2355
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2355
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