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Uncertainty in temperature projections reduced using carbon cycle and climate observations

Author

Listed:
  • Roger W. Bodman

    (The University of Melbourne
    Victoria University)

  • Peter J. Rayner

    (The University of Melbourne)

  • David J. Karoly

    (The University of Melbourne)

Abstract

The response of the carbon cycle to climate change, including carbon fluxes, is now shown to be the second largest source of uncertainty in projections of temperature. A simplified climate model using temperature records and historical estimates of CO2 concentrations demonstrates that considering these two factors together reduces uncertainty further than treating them as individual parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Roger W. Bodman & Peter J. Rayner & David J. Karoly, 2013. "Uncertainty in temperature projections reduced using carbon cycle and climate observations," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 725-729, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:3:y:2013:i:8:d:10.1038_nclimate1903
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1903
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    Cited by:

    1. Shi, Yuning & Eissenstat, David M. & He, Yuting & Davis, Kenneth J., 2018. "Using a spatially-distributed hydrologic biogeochemistry model with a nitrogen transport module to study the spatial variation of carbon processes in a Critical Zone Observatory," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 8-21.
    2. David K Sewell & Peter J Rayner & Daniel B Shank & Sophie Guy & Simon D Lilburn & Saam Saber & Yoshihisa Kashima, 2017. "Causal knowledge promotes behavioral self-regulation: An example using climate change dynamics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(9), pages 1-19, September.
    3. Martha Butler & Patrick Reed & Karen Fisher-Vanden & Klaus Keller & Thorsten Wagener, 2014. "Inaction and climate stabilization uncertainties lead to severe economic risks," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 463-474, December.

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