IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcli/v3y2013i4d10.1038_nclimate1758.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2 °C

Author

Listed:
  • Joeri Rogelj

    (Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • David L. McCollum

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Brian C. O’Neill

    (National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR))

  • Keywan Riahi

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Graz University of Technology)

Abstract

This paper presents a systematic scenario analysis of how different levels of short-term 2020 emissions would impact the technological and economic feasibility of achieving the 2 °C target in the long term. We find that although a relatively wide range of emissions in 2020—from 41 to 55 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (Gt CO2e yr−1)—may preserve the option of meeting a 2 °C target, the size of this ‘feasibility window’ strongly depends on the prospects of key energy technologies, and in particular on the effectiveness of efficiency measures to limit the growth of energy demand. A shortfall of critical technologies—either for technological or socio-political reasons—would narrow the feasibility window, if not close it entirely. Targeting lower 2020 emissions levels of 41–47 Gt CO2e yr−1 would allow the 2 °C target to be achieved under a wide range of assumptions, and thus help to hedge against the risks of long-term uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Joeri Rogelj & David L. McCollum & Brian C. O’Neill & Keywan Riahi, 2013. "2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2 °C," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 405-412, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:3:y:2013:i:4:d:10.1038_nclimate1758
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1758
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1758
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/nclimate1758?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ismael Mohammed Saeed & Ahmad Tarkhany & Younis Hama & Shwan Al-Shatri, 2023. "Environmental considerations, sustainability opportunities and Iraqi government’s energy policies: a comparative study," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 6879-6895, July.
    2. Ding, Jinxiu & Lu, Zhe & Yu, Chin-Hsien, 2022. "Environmental information disclosure and firms’ green innovation: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 147-159.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:3:y:2013:i:4:d:10.1038_nclimate1758. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.