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Focus on poleward shifts in species' distribution underestimates the fingerprint of climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Jeremy VanDerWal

    (Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University)

  • Helen T. Murphy

    (CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences)

  • Alex S. Kutt

    (CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, PMB PO)

  • Genevieve C. Perkins

    (CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, PMB PO)

  • Brooke L. Bateman

    (Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University
    Present address: SILVIS Laboratory, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin 53706, USA)

  • Justin J. Perry

    (CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, PMB PO)

  • April E. Reside

    (Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University
    CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, PMB PO)

Abstract

Species are largely predicted to shift polewards as global temperatures increase. Now research—based on historical changes in the distribution of Australian birds—shows that if only poleward shifts in distribution are considered, the fingerprint of climate change is underestimated by an average of 26% in temperate regions and 95% in tropical regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeremy VanDerWal & Helen T. Murphy & Alex S. Kutt & Genevieve C. Perkins & Brooke L. Bateman & Justin J. Perry & April E. Reside, 2013. "Focus on poleward shifts in species' distribution underestimates the fingerprint of climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(3), pages 239-243, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:3:y:2013:i:3:d:10.1038_nclimate1688
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1688
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    Cited by:

    1. Anderson, James J. & Gurarie, Eliezer & Bracis, Chloe & Burke, Brian J. & Laidre, Kristin L., 2013. "Modeling climate change impacts on phenology and population dynamics of migratory marine species," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 264(C), pages 83-97.
    2. Sheng Chen & Yong Zhang & Amaël Borzée & Tao Liang & Manyu Zhang & Hui Shi & Bin Chen & Wenbin Xu & Yunwei Song & Lingfeng Mao, 2021. "Landscape Attributes Best Explain the Population Trend of Wintering Greater White-Fronted Goose ( Anser albifrons ) in the Yangtze River Floodplain," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-14, August.
    3. Sara J. Germain & James A. Lutz, 2020. "Climate extremes may be more important than climate means when predicting species range shifts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 579-598, November.

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